30 Jan

BCREA Explores Possible Scenarios of Rising Interest Rate

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

BRITISH COLUMBIA – The number of home sales in British Columbia is expected to fall and home price growth will moderate because of rising interest rates according to a new report from the British Columbia Real Estate Association(BCREA) examining the potential impacts of the Bank of Canada‘s rate tightening widely expected this year.

BCREA’s Market Intelligence report, Too Tight? The Impact of Bank of Canada Tightening on BC Housing Markets, was written by the association’s Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson and explores both the historical impacts of the Bank raising its policy rate and a number of scenarios likely to play out in BC’s housing market as a result.

“In the past, Bank of Canada tightening has usually led to falling home sales and flattening home prices, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same happening in the upcoming round of tightening” says Ogmundson. “Based on previous trends and our model simulations for what might be to come with respect to rates, we have outlined a number of likely scenarios in this report.”

The Bank of Canada has signaled that in response to elevated Canadian inflation, it will begin raising its policy rate or “tightening” monetary policy this year. The impact of this type of action on housing markets is generally predictable, however, with BC’s housing markets currently under supplied with record-low numbers of active listings, the impact on prices may not be as significant.

“With markets so out of balance, we expect home price growth to slow but to what extent depends on the final rate destination for the Bank of Canada and for Canadian mortgage rates,” adds Ogmundson. “Our model simulations show only a minor impact on home prices in the first two years following the Bank raising its overnight rate.”

British Columbia set a new record for home sales last year with 124,854 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2021, a 32.8 per cent increase from the 94,001 units sold in 2020. For more economic analysis from the British Columbia Real Estate Association visit bcrea.bc.ca/economics.

Published by Business Examiner

 

26 Jan

Bank of Canada holds benchmark interest rate steady

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

This morning in its first scheduled policy decision of 2022, the Bank of Canada left its target overnight benchmark rate unchanged at what it describes as its “lower bound” of 0.25%. As a result, the Bank Rate stays at 0.5% and the knock-on effect is that borrowing costs for Canadians will remain low for the time being.

The Bank also updated its observations on the state of the economy, both in Canada and globally, leaving a strong impression that rates will rise this year.

More specifically, the Bank said that its Governing Council has decided to end its extraordinary commitment to hold its policy rate at the effective lower bound and that looking ahead, it expects “… interest rates will need to increase, with the timing and pace of those increases guided by the Bank’s commitment to achieving” its 2% inflation target.

These are the other highlights of today’s BoC announcement.

Canadian economy

  • The economy entered 2022 with considerable momentum, and a broad set of measures are now indicating that economic slack is absorbed
  • With strong employment growth, the labour market has tightened significantly with elevated job vacancies, strong hiring intentions, and a pick up in wage gains
  • Elevated housing market activity continues to put upward pressure on house prices
  • Omicron is “weighing on activity in the first quarter” and while its economic impact will depend on how quickly this wave passes, the impact is expected to be less severe than previous waves
  • Economic growth is then expected to bounce back and remain robust over the Bank’s “projection horizon,” led by consumer spending on services, and supported by strength in exports and business investment
  • After GDP growth of 4.5% in 2021, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by 4% in 2022 and about 3.5% in 2023

Canadian inflation

  • CPI inflation remains “well above” the Bank’s target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since October
  • Persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep CPI inflation close to 5% in the first half of 2022
  • As supply shortages diminish, inflation is expected to decline “reasonably quickly” to about 3% by the end of 2022 and then “gradually ease” towards the Bank’s target over the projection period
  • Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target
  • The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to ensure that higher near-term inflation expectations do not become embedded in ongoing inflation

Global economy

  • The recovery is strong but uneven with the US economy “growing robustly” while growth in some other regions appears more moderate, especially in China due to current weakness in its property sector
  • Strong global demand for goods combined with supply bottlenecks that hinder production and transportation are pushing up inflation in most regions
  • Oil prices have rebounded to well above pre-pandemic levels following a decline at the onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19
  • Financial conditions remain broadly accommodative but have tightened with growing expectations that monetary policy will normalize sooner than was anticipated, and with rising geopolitical tensions
  • Overall, the Bank projects global GDP growth to moderate from 6.75% in 2021 to about 3.5% in 2022 and 2023

January Monetary Policy Report

The key messages found in the BoC’s Monetary Policy Report published today were consistent with the highlights noted above:

  • A wide range of measures and indicators suggest that economic slack is now absorbed and estimates of the output gap are consistent with this evidence
  • Public health measures and widespread worker absences related to the Omicron variant are slowing economic activity in the first quarter of 2022, but the economic impact is expected to be less severe than previous waves
  • The impacts from global and domestic supply disruptions are currently exerting upward pressure on prices
  • Inflationary pressures from strong demand, supply shortages and high energy prices should subside during the year
  • Over the medium term, increased productivity is expected to boost supply growth, and demand growth is projected to moderate with inflation expected to decline gradually through 2023 and 2024 to close to 2%
  • The Bank views the risks around this inflation outlook as roughly balanced, however, with inflation above the top of the Bank’s inflation-control range and expected to stay there for some time, the upside risks are of greater concern

Looking ahead

The Bank intends to keep its holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant “at least until” it begins to raise its policy interest rate.  At that time, the BoC’s Governing Council will consider exiting what it calls its “reinvestment phase” and reducing the size of its balance sheet. It will do so by allowing the roll-off of maturing Government of Canada bonds.

While the Bank acknowledges that COVID-19 continues to affect economic activity unevenly across sectors, the Governing Council believes that overall slack in the economy is now absorbed, “thus satisfying the condition outlined in the Bank’s forward guidance on its policy interest rate” and setting the stage for increases in 2022.

Published by First National Financial LP

25 Jan

Interest rate anticipation runs high

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Market watchers have their gaze firmly fixed on January 26th.  The Bank of Canada will make its first rate announcement of 2022 and deliver its first Monetary Policy Report for the year.

The key factors that are top-of-mind ahead of the announcement are inflation and what the central bank will do about it.

There has been a rising chorus of calls for the Bank to start increasing interest rates in an effort to quell generationally high inflation, which is now running at 4.8%.  Many analysts and economists expect the BoC will do that on the 26th, even if it is just to provide reassurance that the Bank is prepared to act.  They point out that the broader economy no longer needs stimulus and support, and the labour market is strong.

From the Bank’s point of view, a prime consideration is warding off “inflation expectations”, which could trigger a self-fueling inflation spiral of higher consumer demand, higher prices, higher wage demands, and so on.

But there are solid reasons for the central bank to stick with its stated plan to wait until at least March to start raising rates.  Chief among them is the Omicron variant, which is currently befuddling all efforts to keep the overall economy on track.

Further, the exact start date of interest rate hikes is not as important as where the increases take the economy over the next year or two, and that is what the Bank of Canada is really trying to manage.

Published by First National Financial LP

17 Jan

Love Where You Live.

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Canadians genuinely celebrate livability within their neighborhood when it comes to choosing a property to buy and live in. These are the qualities that give each homeowner the true satisfaction of his/her home. They are generally determined by a delicate balance of available green spaces, arts and culture, public institutions and local small businesses, as well as housing options.

The 2020 RE/MAX Livability Report further explores these qualities to determine the most important livability factors for Canadians today.

It turns out, livability is so important to Canadians that 8 in 10 (82 percent) would sacrifice at least one desirable attribute to live in a neighborhood that most meets their livability “must-haves”. This report also revealed that 9 out of 10 Canadians (90 percent) love where they live!

Livability is all about living life at the local level. Not surprisingly, the most important criteria for respondents when it comes to these factors is affordability, at the top 61%. While this is nearly double the value of other criteria, Canadians also consider walkability (37%) and proximity to work (34%), as well as proximity to transit, access to green spaces or dog parks, and low-density neighborhoods (all at 30%) to be important livability criteria factors.

Affordability has become a major factor in recent years due to rising house prices and increased financial awareness across the country, due to situations such as COVID-19 requiring a hard look at our personal finances. This report also looked at other personal factors beyond affordability, such as city lovers, suburban families, retirees and luxury seekers to determine the top neighborhoods in the country.

Top Neighborhoods Based on Livability Criteria

Affordability:

If you are someone who has affordability as one of your top livability criteria, hot markets like Vancouver and Toronto are no longer at the top of your list. In fact, if you have been priced out of the city and are looking for an affordable compromise, some of the top neighborhoods include: Boyle Street in Edmonton, Beltline in Calgary and Dartmouth Commons in Halifax, as well as Orleans Chatelaine Village (Ottawa), Clairville (Toronto) and Austin Heights (Vancouver). Some other areas in Winnipeg, Edmonton and Ontario are also suitable for individuals wanting an affordable compromise.

Luxury Seekers:

For those Canadians still focused on luxury with proximity to restaurants and bars as well as access to green spaces, Vancouver and Toronto still rank high. Top neighborhoods in Toronto include West Don Lands and City Place with the top spots in Vancouver being the West End and the Downtown area. Other considerations include Downtown Halifax, Downtown East Village in Calgary and Downtown Edmonton.

City Lovers (no kids):

So you love the city and you have no kids, so you are free to do what you like! If you fall into this category, the major livability factor is proximity to work, transit, restaurants and entertainment, as well as vibrancy and high-density neighborhoods. For these buyers, the top neighborhoods in Canada include: Beltline in Calgary, Downtown Edmonton and Centretown in Ottawa as well as Ryerson (Toronto), Barrington South (Halifax) and Downtown Vancouver.

City Lovers (with kids):

If you have kids but aren’t quite ready to let go of the city, your top livability factors for 2020 included walkability, access to green spaces as well as proximity to good schools and public transit. The top neighborhoods for these factors included: McCauley in Edmonton, Downtown West End in Calgary and Dartmouth Commons in Halifax. Other neighborhoods for consideration are Lowertown (Ottawa), Corktown (Toronto) and Uptown New Westminster (Vancouver).

Suburban Families:

For those of you who prefer a more suburban lifestyle, Winnipeg and Edmonton both rank high for low-density neighborhoods, proximity to transit, access to green spaces and affordability. The top neighborhoods included: Bellevue in Edmonton, Greenview in Calgary and Thornhill Park in Halifax. Additional neighborhoods suitable for suburban family living are Orleans Chatelaine Village (Ottawa), Clairville (Toronto) and Mayfair/Pacific Reach (Vancouver).

Retirees:

Lastly, when it comes to retirees, Edmonton and Halifax are considered the best options due to their vibrancy, green spaces and walking paths, proximity to health care or pharmacies and quietness. Some neighborhoods among the top for retirees include: Mill Woods Park in Edmonton, Melville Cove in Halifax and Belcarra in Vancouver. Additional mentions for retirees include Bridle Path (Toronto), Parkland (Calgary) and Beaverbrook (Ontario).

Top Neighborhoods in Canada’s Major Cities

This report also broke down the top neighborhoods in Canada’s major cities. The results were:

Victoria: Downtown, North Park and Burnside are among the top neighborhoods due to their abundant green spaces and dog parks, as well as shopping, locally owned restaurants and good schools.

Vancouver: Downtown, Strathcona and Fairview are all notable for their proximity to public transit, green spaces and social spots such as bars, restaurants and shopping. The added outdoor activities available in Vancouver also factors into the livability of these top neighborhoods.

Edmonton: Downtown, Cromdale and McCauley are among the top neighborhoods in Edmonton thanks to their green spaces and dog parks, walkability and proximity to bike lanes, transit, shopping and shorter work commutes.

Calgary: Beltline, Downtown East Village and the Downtown West End are among the top neighborhoods and offer good walkability and bike lanes and access to green spaces and dog parks.

Saskatoon: Central Business District, Kelsey-Woodlawn and Caswell Hill are among the top neighborhoods due to their green spaces, parks, walkability and proximity to retail.

Winnipeg: River Heights, Norwood Flats and Osborne Village are the top three neighborhoods for Winnipeg, boasting proximity to green spaces, parks, transit and retail as well as affordability.

Toronto: Corktown, Kensington Market West and Don Lands are among the top liveable neighborhoods when considering factors such as vibrancy, proximity and green spaces. When it comes to affordability, the top Toronto neighborhoods are Trinity Bellwoods, East York and The Junction.

Halifax: Dartmouth Commons, Kempt Road and Penhorn are among the top neighborhoods for livability, as well as North End Halifax, Downtown Dartmouth and Clayton Park. Each of these options have high walkability and proximity to work and retail.

Saint John (New Brunswick): Millidgeville, East Saint John and Uptown are the most livable and most affordable neighborhoods.

St. John’s (Newfoundland): Churchill Square, Airport Heights and Clovelly Trails are among the top for livability with Galway, Rivers Edge and Grand Meadows in Paradise having the best affordability. All have access to green spaces and close proximity to retail.

Charlottetown: Parkdale, Sherwood and Spring Park are among the most livable neighborhoods in Charlottetown with improvements expected in the next three to five years for accessibility to walking paths and added bike lanes.

Published by DLC Marketing Team

10 Jan

Refinancing Your Home

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

One of the best parts about life is that it is ever-changing. This is one of the reasons that mortgages are available on short-term contracts (such as the standard 5-year) so that you can adjust your mortgage over time to best suit your needs. However, in some cases you cannot wait until the term is up. In fact, roughly six out of ten homeowners with the standard five-year fixed rate mortgage break their terms within three years.

There are a variety of reasons to refinance your mortgage such as wanting to leverage large increases in property value or get equity out of the home for renovations. In some cases, you may be unable to wait until the term is up due to life events such as divorce, a new relationship, kids going off to college or needing to consolidate debt.

Before you refinance, it is important to understand that if you do this during your term you will be breaking your mortgage agreement and there are penalties that come with that. If at all possible, it is best to wait until the end of the mortgage term before refinancing.

If you cannot wait, it is important to understand how your lender is going to calculate the penalty if you break a fixed-rate mortgage. Canada’s big banks calculate mortgage penalties based on the discount you were given from the posted rate at the time that you signed your mortgage agreement. The bank firstly takes their new posted rate for whatever time you have left in your mortgage – if you break a five year contract on year three, this would be two years – and apply the same discount they first gave you. The difference between the two shows them the amount of interest they would lose for the rest of the term based on your current balance. This is what then becomes the penalty for breaking your fixed-year term and, in many cases, can be quite hefty. Other lenders such as credit unions and monolines will use the interest rate differential or a flat three-month interest penalty.

Beyond the penalties, there are a few other points to consider before refinancing:

  • You can tap into 80 per cent of the value of your home
  • You cannot qualify for default insurance which can limit your lender choice
  • You would have to re-qualify under the current rates and rules – including passing the “stress test” again

So what can you do? There is an option to sign a fixed rate for a shorter term, such as three years, or you can also consider a variable rate as the penalties for breaking these mortgages are much lower.

Talking to a mortgage broker about refinancing can provide you access to even greater rates and mortgage plans to best suit your needs and what you are trying to accomplish through your refinancing strategy.

Benefits of Refinancing

Regardless of why you are looking to refinance, it can come with a host of great benefits when done properly!

1.   A Lower Interest Rate

Depending on where you are in your mortgage term, you could refinance to get a better rate – especially when done through a mortgage broker. On average, a mortgage broker has access to 90 lenders and is able to find you the best rate versus traditional banks which only have access to their own rate.

2.   Consolidating Your Debt

When it comes to debt, there are many different types from credit cards to lines of credit to school loans to mortgages. However, many types of consumer debt have much higher interest rates than those you would pay on a mortgage. Refinancing can free up cash to help you pay out these debts. While it may increase your mortgage, your overall payments could be far lower and would be a single payment versus multiple sources. Keep in mind, you need at least 20 percent equity in your home to qualify.

3.   Modifying Your Mortgage

The beauty of life is that it is ever-changing and sometimes you need to pay off your mortgage faster or change your mortgage type. Maybe you came into some extra money and want to put it towards your mortgage or maybe you are weary of the market and want to lock in at a fixed-rate for security. It is always best to do this when your mortgage term is up, but talk to a mortgage specialist about potential penalties if waiting is not possible.

4.   Utilize Your Home Equity
One of the biggest reasons to buy in the first place is to build up equity in your home. Consider your home equity as the difference between your property’s market value and the balance of your mortgage. If you need funds, you can refinance your mortgage to access up to 80% of your home’s appraised value in cash!

If you are considering refinancing your home, or wondering if it is the best option for you, don’t hesitate to reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Professional today for expert advice!

Written by our DLC Marketing Team