28 Nov

Residential Mortgage Commentary – Ottawa offers comfort to nervous borrowers

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The Fall Economic Statement from the federal government concentrated closely on Canada’s housing situation.  Most of the new spending is meant to address the need for adequate, affordable shelter, rather than increasing housing stock to quench the “desire for ownership”.  But there was one item that seemed designed to get the attention of most homebuyers.

The Canadian Mortgage Charter is supposed to reinforce of Ottawa’s expectations of how federally regulated financial institutions will deal with vulnerable borrowers.

  • Allow temporary extensions of amortization periods for at-risk mortgage holders.
  • Waive fees and costs that “would have otherwise been changed for relief measures.”
  • Exempt insured mortgage holders from re-qualifying under the stress test when switching lenders at the time of a mortgage renewal.
  • Require financial institutions to contact homeowners 4 to 6 months ahead of a mortgage renewal, and make them aware of their options.
  • Give at-risk homeowners the ability to make “lump sum payments” without prepayment penalties to avoid a negative amortization or sale of their principal residence.
  • Avoid charging interest on interest by waiving interest charges in the event that mortgage relief measures result in payments that do not cover interest payments on the loan.

The measures have been generally welcomed, but most of them are already included in guidelines from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.  They are not law and there are no plans to put them into legislation.

Recent surveys suggest that anywhere from 35% to nearly 90% of homeowners, who face mortgage renewals, are worried about increased payments.

Putting the Charter into the Fall Economic Statement appears to be an effort to comfort the growing number of homeowners who are worried about mortgage renewals in the current high interest rate environment.

Published by First National Financial LP

14 Nov

Residential Mortgage Commentary – BoC: Prepare for higher for longer

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

There has been a little relief for mortgage shoppers in recent days.  Fixed-rates have come down slightly, led by declining yields for government bonds.  Variable-rate mortgages appear to be maintaining their discounts and most market watchers believe the Bank of Canada has reached the top of this rate-hiking cycle.

The Bank, however, continues to warn that Canadians should be preparing for interest rates to remain higher for longer.  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers made that point again during a recent speech in Vancouver, saying it is important to adjust proactively to that possibility.  Rogers cited a number of global considerations for higher rates including: China and other developing nations joining the worldwide economy; a decline in attractive investment opportunities for businesses; and an overall, international, adjustment to higher rates.

It is also useful to remember that central banks around the world have been working to normalize interest rates that have been at historic lows since the 2008 financial crisis.

Rogers offered some reassurance that Canadians are adjusting to higher rates.  Household credit growth has dropped to its slowest pace since the early ’90s.  Delinquency rates on credit cards and other consumer loans are only slightly above pre-pandemic levels.  Mortgage delinquencies are below pre-pandemic levels, and that is despite about 40% of all mortgage holders having already renewed at higher rates, with bigger payments.

As to when interest rates might actually start falling?  The BoC’s Q3 survey of “Market Participants” suggests they are adjusting to the higher-for-longer scenario. Based on the median response they are expecting a quarter point drop in April, 2024.  That is a month later than expectations expressed in the Bank’s Q2 survey.

Published by First National Financial LP

6 Nov

Residential Mortgage Commentary – Economists vs the market

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

An interesting difference of opinion has developed between the economists and the people who deal in the bond markets.  The economists do not expect to see any rate cuts by the Bank of Canada until the middle of next year.  But the markets see things changing sooner.  And there may be benefits for mortgage shoppers.

The Bank of Canada has been trying to wrestle inflation back to its 2.0% target by raising interest rates to slow the economy.  There have been 10 hikes since March of 2022 and they appear to be delivering the desired results.  Inflation is down.  Household spending is down.  Employment is down and GDP growth is down.  For two settings in a row, the Bank of Canada has held its trendsetting rate at 5.0% and there is little indication that any further increases are coming.

Even though the BoC does not expect to see inflation back at 2.0% until mid-2025, some recent comments by the Bank’s bosses have the bond markets looking for rate cuts.  Both Governor Tiff Macklem, and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, told the federal finance committee cuts could start before the 2.0% target is hit.

Since then, yields on 5-year, Government of Canada bonds — which are the basis of fixed-rate mortgage interest — have dropped more than 30 basis points (0.3%) to 3.79%.  Yields are down more than 60 bps (0.6%) from highs reached in early October.  That has some market watchers forecasting declines in fixed mortgage rates of 20 to 40 bps over the very near term.

Published by First National Financial LP