26 Aug

Residential Market Commentary – More room for rate relief

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

People hoping for more interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada have been getting some good news.

On Friday the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, announced the American central bank is ready to start trimming its policy rate and he hinted several cuts could be coming.

“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data,” he said at the Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Powell did not say when rate cuts would begin, or how big they will be but it is widely expected there will be a quarter-point drop at the Fed’s next meeting in September.

Reductions in the Fed rate will give the Bank of Canada more room to cut rates here, without fear of overly devaluing the Loonie.  Canada has been leading the U.S. in reducing rates.  There have been concerns that could lower the value of the Canadian dollar, making things more expensive here and rekindling inflation.  Inflation in the U.S. is currently running at 2.5%.

Inflation in Canada took another dip in July falling to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in June.  Food and energy costs were the main drivers of inflation for the month.  Shelter inflation and mortgage interest costs remain high, but they are easing.  Many analysts say that clears the way for another quarter-point cut by the Bank of Canada in September.  There is a broad expectation the Bank will continue making 25 basis-point cuts for the rest of the year.

The BoC’s policy rate currently stands at 4.5%.

Published by First National Financial LP

14 Aug

Residential Market Commentary – Housing concerns moderate at BoC

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

A consistent concern as the Bank of Canada embarks on its interest rate cutting cycle has been what will happen to home prices.  There have been persistent fears that prices will spike as rates fall, effectively stalling efforts to bring down inflation.  The Bank of Canada, however, is not overly worried about it, according to the governing council’s latest Summary of Deliberations.

The central bankers are paying close attention to the housing market but their worries about pent-up demand driving prices higher as interest rates drop have eased.  They do acknowledge that declining mortgage rates and higher-than-expected population growth “could add to demand.”  But there is also a feeling that “housing affordability challenges could have played a greater-than-expected role in dampening demand” and that delays in building homes could limit the growth of supply.

So far, housing market reaction to the rate cuts that have been made is mild.  There have been some upticks in sales and in new listings.  The Bank of Canada’s trend-setting policy rate is currently 4.50%.

A number of market watchers have commented that the Bank of Canada seems satisfied with the progress that is being made to bring inflation back to its 2.0% target.  The Consumer Price Index puts headline inflation at 2.7%.  The analysts suggest the Bank is now shifting its focus away from inflation and toward maintaining economic growth and avoiding a recession.

The Bank’s next interest rate announcement is set for September 4th.

Published by First National Financial LP