17 Feb

Residential Market Commentary – CMHC housing outlook

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Things are looking a little better for Canada’s housing market this year, in the eyes of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The national housing agency has released its latest Housing Market Outlook and is projecting modest growth in sales and prices for 2026.

CMHC’s baseline forecast predicts home sales will rise to 489,000 units, up from 470,000 in 2025. The average price is also expected to rise, climbing to $698,000 compared to $680,000 last year.

Those numbers are in line with latest forecasts from the Canadian Real Estate Association. The country’s realtors expect 494,500 properties to change hands (+5.1%) with an average price of a little less than $690,000 (+2.8%).

Beyond the U.S. trade challenges and the economic uncertainty that have been dominating the headlines, Canada Mortgage and Housing points to several other factors that are likely to subdue the market including: lower population growth; weak income growth; higher mortgage costs; and a, generally, more cautious attitude among buyers.

Despite all the political hoopla about Canada’s housing shortage, CMHC is forecasting fewer housing starts for this year – 247,000 compared to 259,000 in 2025. The agency says developers are facing higher construction costs, weaker demand and rising inventories of unsold units.

Purpose built rentals are expected to lead new construction, with condominium apartments seeing the biggest declines.

Published by First National Financial LP

10 Feb

Residential Market Commentary – Supply and Demand Favouring Buyers

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Canada’s housing market continues to tilt in favour of buyers, according to a recent report from one of the country’s big banks. But the report also suggests buyers are still being cautious.

The report focuses, mainly, on Canada’s largest markets.  It notes that demand is down sharply in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley while Toronto and Montreal also continue to soften.  Across the prairies, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Saskatoon are posting particularly weak results but Calgary and Regina are among the few outliers showing an increase in buying activity.

Toronto recorded a, seasonally adjusted, 10% drop in prices between December and January.  Based on the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Home Price Index (HPI) prices declined 8.0% compared to a year ago.

In Vancouver seasonally adjusted sales crashed by 30% from December to January, cancelling-out three months of gains.  The HPI shows a 5.7%, year-over-year price decline in January.

In Calgary a 7.3% jump in sales between December and January was not enough to overtake new listings and draw down inventories.  Prices are down 4.7% from January of 2025.

The report notes that severe winter weather may have had an influence on buyer activity.  It also points out that market patterns may have been influenced by an anomaly in the calendar.

“January 2026 contained more working days compared to a year ago, while December’s working day count aligned unusually with January’s—a rare occurrence that likely exaggerated trends.”