Statistics Canada released the February Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more significant than expected 336,600 net new jobs, with the unemployment rate falling a full percentage point to 5.5%. This is the first time the unemployment rate fell below its pre-Covid level and reinforces the expectation for another Bank of Canada rate hike in April and as many as five more increases this year. Last month’s recovery more than offsets the losses that coincided with the Omicron lockdowns in January and points to the continued resilience of the Canadian economy.

The loonie jumped on the news, as did Canadian government bond yields.

Other indicators point to an increasingly tight labour market in February. Total hours worked surged 3.6% to a record high, while the employment rate rose 1.0 percentage points to 61.8%. Gains were most notable in the hard-hit accommodation and food services sector (+114,000; +12.6%), and information, culture and recreation (+73,000; +9.9%) industries. Employment increases were widespread across provinces and demographic groups.

Average wages increased 3.1% from February 2020, significantly faster than the 2.4% rate recorded in January. That could signal that inflationary pressures, already intense, continue to build.

Well, it happened. The Bank of Canada pulled the trigger on an interest rate increase, the first since October 2018. The trendsetting “overnight” rate doubled from .25% to .50% and the Bank has made it clear more increases are coming.

The upward move and the Bank’s messaging have rekindled the perennial mortgage debate: fixed or variable. The answer remains the perennial: it depends.

It depends on the borrower’s end goals, finances and their desire for stability. That last point, stability, is what leads most Canadian home buyers to opt for a 5-year, fixed-rate mortgage. But in purely financial terms – and saving money – variable-rate mortgages tend to be cheaper and they do not have to be volatile.

In a rising rate environment, many borrowers worry about the cost of their debt going up. But right now, variable-rates are notably lower than fixed-rates and it will take several Bank of Canada increases to close the gap. In the meantime, that amounts to savings for the borrower.

Those savings – often hundreds of dollars a month – could be applied against principal. As rates rise the amount can be adjusted, thereby keeping total monthly payments the same and evening-out any volatility.

It should be remembered that fixed-rates are rising as well. They are tied to Government of Canada 5-year bond yields. Those yields have been increasing, and at least some of that is tied to increases in U.S. government bond yields. Canadian bonds tend to move in sync with American bonds, but those changes do not necessarily reflect the Canadian economy. In other words, the changes are not completely within our control.

Published by First National Financial LP

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate target by a quarter percentage point in a widely expected move and signaled that more hikes would be coming. This is the first rate hike since 2018. In a cautious stance, the Bank announced it was continuing the reinvestment phase, keeping its overall Government of Canada bonds holdings on its balance sheet roughly stable.

The Bank’s press release highlighted the major new source of uncertainty provided by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia and suggested that it is a new source of substantial inflation pressure. Prices for oil, metals, wheat and other grains have skyrocketed recently. Moreover, this geopolitical distention negatively impacts confidence worldwide and adds new supply disruptions that dampen growth. “Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid, and we are following events closely.”

The Bank commented that economies have emerged from the impact of the Omicron variant more quickly than expected. Demand is robust, particularly in the US.

“Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, Canada’s labour market recovery suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.”

Canadian CPI inflation has risen to 5.1%, as expected in January, well below the 7.5% level posted in the US.” Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation increases the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

The final paragraph of the Bank’s press release speaks with great clarity: “The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement the policy interest rate increases. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

Let’s face it, mere mention of the word “money” can make people shift in discomfort. In an era in which the veils are being lifted off many societal taboos, a shroud of shame hangs stubbornly over money talk – we’re taught to fear it, we’re taught it’s too complicated, and those are all messages meant to dis-empower.

It’s time to push past the taboo, and normalize talking about money. Disrupt it by talking about it – openly and frankly – with your partner, your friends, your family, and your colleagues. Speaking of partners, it’s important both parties are open with one another about their fears, feelings, and goals in regards to money. This is particularly important in opposite-gender households, where research shows that the male partner takes the financial lead in most homes.

stnce Senior Program Specialist, Sarah Zandbergen has this to say about the hesitation to discuss finances with partners: “It can be difficult to bring up, no question, but if you’re sharing your life with someone, finances are bound to come up. A staggering statistic we came across in our research is that 90% of women will be the sole financial decision-maker in their family at some point in their lives. Knowing this, there is absolutely no excuse to defer ownership to someone else.”

Smash the stigma, and get radically transparent about your salary, your financial situation, your debts, your windfalls, and your savings goals.

And, hey, we get it – there’s a sense of comfort, albeit a false one, that comes with avoiding fiscal responsibility, because it temporarily absolves us of having to do anything, but remaining on the sidelines gives money a leg up on you. So if you want to be truly in control, increasing your knowledge about money, and how to save it, is a critical part of the confidence-building process.

Published by DLC Marketing Team

Statistics Canada released the January Labor Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more extensive than expected decline in jobs last month. The Omicron shutdowns and restrictions took a much larger toll in Canada than expected, as employment fell 200,100 in January and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%.

Ontario and Quebec drove January employment declines, and accommodation and food services was the hardest-hit industry. In January, youth and core-aged women, who are more likely than other demographic groups to work in industries affected by the public health measures, saw the most significant impacts. Goods-producing sectors recorded a gain, led by construction.

We did not expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates in January because of the risk that Omicron restrictions would batter the economy at least temporarily. If we see a reversal in these declines in February, rate hikes could well commence. The Bank of Canada’s next policy-decision date is March 2. But we won’t see the Labour Force Survey for February until March 11. This could postpone lift-off by the BoC until the next meeting on April 13, when we will have both the February and March employment reports. This would put the first rate hike in April, exactly when the Bank’s forward guidance initially told us the hikes would begin. 

The timing of lift-off is subject to the incoming data. It is troubling that the US employment report, also released today for January, was surprisingly strong, in contrast. To be sure, the US did not impose Canadian-style Omicron restrictions last month, but the Omicron wave did depress US economic activity. It was expected to translate into weak hiring. It didn’t. 467,000 jobs were created in the US, and massive upward revisions suggest a fundamentally very strong US economy. With US companies desperate to hire and the most significant issue being the lack of qualified staff, wages are rising more sharply south of the border.

Canadian employment remains just over 30,000 above pre-pandemic levels, and the country has a strong track record of bouncing back after prior waves of the virus. Yet, today’s jobs numbers suggest a tough start for the Canadian economy in the first quarter. Hours worked — which is closely correlated to output — fell 2.2% in January, and the number of employees who worked less than half their usual hours jumped by 620,000. January also saw the first drop in full-time employment — down 82,700 — since June.

Average hourly wages grew 2.4% (+$0.72) on a year-over-year basis in January, down from 2.7% in November and December 2021 (not seasonally adjusted). The January 2022 year-over-year change was similar to the average annual wage growth of 2.5% observed in the five years from 2015 to 2019.

The concentration of January 2022 employment losses in lower-wage industries did not significantly impact year-over-year wage change, partly because employment in these industries experienced similar losses in January 2021 as a result of the third wave of COVID-19.

BRITISH COLUMBIA – The number of home sales in British Columbia is expected to fall and home price growth will moderate because of rising interest rates according to a new report from the British Columbia Real Estate Association(BCREA) examining the potential impacts of the Bank of Canada‘s rate tightening widely expected this year.

BCREA’s Market Intelligence report, Too Tight? The Impact of Bank of Canada Tightening on BC Housing Markets, was written by the association’s Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson and explores both the historical impacts of the Bank raising its policy rate and a number of scenarios likely to play out in BC’s housing market as a result.

“In the past, Bank of Canada tightening has usually led to falling home sales and flattening home prices, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same happening in the upcoming round of tightening” says Ogmundson. “Based on previous trends and our model simulations for what might be to come with respect to rates, we have outlined a number of likely scenarios in this report.”

The Bank of Canada has signaled that in response to elevated Canadian inflation, it will begin raising its policy rate or “tightening” monetary policy this year. The impact of this type of action on housing markets is generally predictable, however, with BC’s housing markets currently under supplied with record-low numbers of active listings, the impact on prices may not be as significant.

“With markets so out of balance, we expect home price growth to slow but to what extent depends on the final rate destination for the Bank of Canada and for Canadian mortgage rates,” adds Ogmundson. “Our model simulations show only a minor impact on home prices in the first two years following the Bank raising its overnight rate.”

British Columbia set a new record for home sales last year with 124,854 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2021, a 32.8 per cent increase from the 94,001 units sold in 2020. For more economic analysis from the British Columbia Real Estate Association visit bcrea.bc.ca/economics.

Published by Business Examiner

Published by First National Financial LP

Canadians genuinely celebrate livability within their neighborhood when it comes to choosing a property to buy and live in. These are the qualities that give each homeowner the true satisfaction of his/her home. They are generally determined by a delicate balance of available green spaces, arts and culture, public institutions and local small businesses, as well as housing options.

The 2020 RE/MAX Livability Report further explores these qualities to determine the most important livability factors for Canadians today.

It turns out, livability is so important to Canadians that 8 in 10 (82 percent) would sacrifice at least one desirable attribute to live in a neighborhood that most meets their livability “must-haves”. This report also revealed that 9 out of 10 Canadians (90 percent) love where they live!

Livability is all about living life at the local level. Not surprisingly, the most important criteria for respondents when it comes to these factors is affordability, at the top 61%. While this is nearly double the value of other criteria, Canadians also consider walkability (37%) and proximity to work (34%), as well as proximity to transit, access to green spaces or dog parks, and low-density neighborhoods (all at 30%) to be important livability criteria factors.

Affordability has become a major factor in recent years due to rising house prices and increased financial awareness across the country, due to situations such as COVID-19 requiring a hard look at our personal finances. This report also looked at other personal factors beyond affordability, such as city lovers, suburban families, retirees and luxury seekers to determine the top neighborhoods in the country.

Top Neighborhoods Based on Livability Criteria

Affordability:

If you are someone who has affordability as one of your top livability criteria, hot markets like Vancouver and Toronto are no longer at the top of your list. In fact, if you have been priced out of the city and are looking for an affordable compromise, some of the top neighborhoods include: Boyle Street in Edmonton, Beltline in Calgary and Dartmouth Commons in Halifax, as well as Orleans Chatelaine Village (Ottawa), Clairville (Toronto) and Austin Heights (Vancouver). Some other areas in Winnipeg, Edmonton and Ontario are also suitable for individuals wanting an affordable compromise.

Luxury Seekers:

For those Canadians still focused on luxury with proximity to restaurants and bars as well as access to green spaces, Vancouver and Toronto still rank high. Top neighborhoods in Toronto include West Don Lands and City Place with the top spots in Vancouver being the West End and the Downtown area. Other considerations include Downtown Halifax, Downtown East Village in Calgary and Downtown Edmonton.

City Lovers (no kids):

So you love the city and you have no kids, so you are free to do what you like! If you fall into this category, the major livability factor is proximity to work, transit, restaurants and entertainment, as well as vibrancy and high-density neighborhoods. For these buyers, the top neighborhoods in Canada include: Beltline in Calgary, Downtown Edmonton and Centretown in Ottawa as well as Ryerson (Toronto), Barrington South (Halifax) and Downtown Vancouver.

City Lovers (with kids):

If you have kids but aren’t quite ready to let go of the city, your top livability factors for 2020 included walkability, access to green spaces as well as proximity to good schools and public transit. The top neighborhoods for these factors included: McCauley in Edmonton, Downtown West End in Calgary and Dartmouth Commons in Halifax. Other neighborhoods for consideration are Lowertown (Ottawa), Corktown (Toronto) and Uptown New Westminster (Vancouver).

Suburban Families:

For those of you who prefer a more suburban lifestyle, Winnipeg and Edmonton both rank high for low-density neighborhoods, proximity to transit, access to green spaces and affordability. The top neighborhoods included: Bellevue in Edmonton, Greenview in Calgary and Thornhill Park in Halifax. Additional neighborhoods suitable for suburban family living are Orleans Chatelaine Village (Ottawa), Clairville (Toronto) and Mayfair/Pacific Reach (Vancouver).

Retirees:

Lastly, when it comes to retirees, Edmonton and Halifax are considered the best options due to their vibrancy, green spaces and walking paths, proximity to health care or pharmacies and quietness. Some neighborhoods among the top for retirees include: Mill Woods Park in Edmonton, Melville Cove in Halifax and Belcarra in Vancouver. Additional mentions for retirees include Bridle Path (Toronto), Parkland (Calgary) and Beaverbrook (Ontario).

Top Neighborhoods in Canada’s Major Cities

This report also broke down the top neighborhoods in Canada’s major cities. The results were:

Victoria: Downtown, North Park and Burnside are among the top neighborhoods due to their abundant green spaces and dog parks, as well as shopping, locally owned restaurants and good schools.

Vancouver: Downtown, Strathcona and Fairview are all notable for their proximity to public transit, green spaces and social spots such as bars, restaurants and shopping. The added outdoor activities available in Vancouver also factors into the livability of these top neighborhoods.

Edmonton: Downtown, Cromdale and McCauley are among the top neighborhoods in Edmonton thanks to their green spaces and dog parks, walkability and proximity to bike lanes, transit, shopping and shorter work commutes.

Calgary: Beltline, Downtown East Village and the Downtown West End are among the top neighborhoods and offer good walkability and bike lanes and access to green spaces and dog parks.

Saskatoon: Central Business District, Kelsey-Woodlawn and Caswell Hill are among the top neighborhoods due to their green spaces, parks, walkability and proximity to retail.

Winnipeg: River Heights, Norwood Flats and Osborne Village are the top three neighborhoods for Winnipeg, boasting proximity to green spaces, parks, transit and retail as well as affordability.

Toronto: Corktown, Kensington Market West and Don Lands are among the top liveable neighborhoods when considering factors such as vibrancy, proximity and green spaces. When it comes to affordability, the top Toronto neighborhoods are Trinity Bellwoods, East York and The Junction.

Halifax: Dartmouth Commons, Kempt Road and Penhorn are among the top neighborhoods for livability, as well as North End Halifax, Downtown Dartmouth and Clayton Park. Each of these options have high walkability and proximity to work and retail.

Saint John (New Brunswick): Millidgeville, East Saint John and Uptown are the most livable and most affordable neighborhoods.

St. John’s (Newfoundland): Churchill Square, Airport Heights and Clovelly Trails are among the top for livability with Galway, Rivers Edge and Grand Meadows in Paradise having the best affordability. All have access to green spaces and close proximity to retail.

Charlottetown: Parkdale, Sherwood and Spring Park are among the most livable neighborhoods in Charlottetown with improvements expected in the next three to five years for accessibility to walking paths and added bike lanes.

Published by DLC Marketing Team