30 Mar

Understanding Your Mortgage Rate.

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

When it comes to mortgages, one of the most important influencers is interest rate but do you know how this rate is determined? It might surprise you to find out that there are 10 major factors that affect the interest you will pay on your home loan!

Knowing these factors will not only prepare you for the mortgage process, but will also help you to better understand the mortgage rates available to you.

Credit Score

Not surprisingly, your credit score is one of the most influential factors when it comes to your interest rate. In fact, your credit score determines if you are able to qualify for financing at all – as well as how much. In order to qualify, a minimum credit score of 680 is required for at least one borrower. Having higher credit will further showcase that you are a reliable borrower and may lead to better rates.

Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio

This ratio refers to the value of the amount being borrowed as a percentage of the overall home value. The main factors that impact LTV ratios include the sales price, appraised value of the property and the amount of the down payment. Putting down more on a home, especially one with a lower purchase price, will result in a lower LTV and be more appealing to lenders. As an example, if you were to buy a home appraised at $500,000 and are able to make a down payment of $100,000 (20%), then you would be borrowing $400,000. For this transaction, the LTV is 80%.

Insured vs. Uninsured

Depending on how much you are able to save for a down payment, you will either have an insured or uninsured mortgage. Typically, if you put less than 20% down, you will require insurance on the property. Depending on the insurer, this can affect your borrowing power as well as the interest rates.

Fixed vs. Variable Rate

The type of rate you are looking for will also affect how much interest you will pay. While there are benefits to both fixed and variable mortgages, it is more important to understand how they affect interest rates.  Fixed rates are based on the bond market, which depends on the amount that global investors demand to be paid for long-term lending. Variable rates, on the other hand, are based on the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate. This ties variable rates directly to the economic state at-home, versus fixed which are influenced on a global scale.

Location

Location, location, location! This is not just true for where you want to LIVE, but it also can affect how much interest you will pay. Homes located in provinces with more competitive housing markets will typically see lower interest rates, simply due to supply and demand. On the other hand, with less movement and competition will most likely have higher rates.

Rate Hold

A rate hold is a guarantee offered by a lender to ‘hold’ the interest rate you were offered for up to 120 days (depending on the lender). The purpose of a rate hold is to protect you from any rate increases while you are house-hunting. It also gives you the opportunity to take advantage of any decreases to your benefit. This means that, if you were pre-approved for your mortgage and worked with a mortgage broker to obtain a ‘rate hold’, you may receive a different interest rate than someone just entering the market.

Refinancing

The act of refinancing your mortgage basically means that you are restructuring your current mortgage (typically when the term is up). Whether you are changing from fixed to variable, refinancing to consolidate debt, or just seeking access to built up equity, any change to your mortgage can affect the interest rate you are offered. In most cases, new buyers will be offered lower rates than refinancing, but refinancing clients will receive better rates than mortgage transfers. Regardless of why you are refinancing, it is always best to discuss your options with a mortgage broker to ensure you are making the best choice for your unique situation.

Home Type

Among other things, lenders assess the risk associated with your home type. Some properties are viewed as higher risk than others. If the subject property is considered higher risk, the lender may require higher rates.

Secondary Property (Income Property/Vacation Home)

Any secondary properties or those bought for the purpose of being an income property or vacation home, will be assessed as such. The lender may deem these as high risk investments, and you may be required to pay higher interest rates than you would on a principal residence. This is another area where a mortgage broker can help. Since they have access to a variety of lenders and various rates, they can help you find the best option.

Income Level

The final factor is income level. While this does not have a direct affect on the interest rate you are able to obtain, it does dictate your purchasing power as well as how much you are able to put down on a home.

It is important to understand that obtaining financing for a mortgage is a complex process that looks at many factors to ensure the lender is not putting themselves at risk of default. To ensure that you – the borrower – is getting the best mortgage product for your needs, don’t hesitate to reach out to a DLC Mortgage Broker today! Mortgage brokers are licensed professionals that live and breathe mortgages, and who have access to a variety of lenders to ensure you are getting the best rates. Mortgage brokers can also assess your unique situation and find the right mortgage for you. Their goal is to see you successfully find and afford the home of your dreams and set you up for future success!

Published By DLC Marketing Team

23 Mar

Investment Properties

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

So, you are looking to purchase a second property! Congratulations! This is a great opportunity for you to expand your financial portfolio and ensure stability for the future. However, before you launch into this purchase there are a few things you should know, depending on which type of second property you are looking to purchase.

Second Property with Intention to Rent

Buying a property for the purpose of renting it out to someone else comes with different qualifying criteria and mortgage product options than traditional home purchases. Before you look at purchasing a rental property, there are a few things to consider:

  1. The minimum down payment required is 20% of the purchase price, and the funds must come from your own savings; you cannot use a gift from someone else.
  2. Only a portion of the rental income can be used to qualify and determine how much you can afford to borrow. Some lenders will only allow you to use 50% of the income added to yours, while other lenders may allow up to 80% of the rental income and subtract your expenses.
  3. Interest rates usually have a premium when the mortgage is for a rental property versus a mortgage for a home someone intends on living in. The premium can be anywhere from 0.10% to 0.20% on a regular 5-year fixed rate.

Rental income from the property can be used to debt service the mortgage application, but do bear in mind that some lenders will have a minimum liquid net worth requirement outside of the property. Also, if you do eventually want to sell this property it will be subject to capital gains tax. Your accountant will be able to help you with that aspect if you do decide to sell in the future.

Vacation Property

While vacation properties are not always the perfect investment, they are popular options for people who want to get away from it all and build memories in! If you’re motivated to head down that road, buying a vacation property is essentially like purchasing a second home.

If you are considering buying a unit within a hotel as a vacation spot (known as “fractional ownership”), it is important to note that if there is any mention of using your vacation home to provide rental income it will be treated like an investment property.

Secondary Property

Most people are trained to stay out of debt and don’t tend to consider using the equity in their home to buy an investment property, but they haven’t realized the art of leveraging. If you’re using equity from your primary residence to buy a secondary property, keep in mind that the interest you’re using is tax deductible. Consider that you’re buying an appreciating asset, and if you put a real estate portfolio and a stock portfolio side-by-side, they don’t compare.

Who is a good candidate?

You might be surprised to learn that you don’t need to make six figures to get in the game. Essentially, you just have to be someone who wants to be a little smarter with their down payment. Before taking on a secondary property remember that the minimum down payment is 5% of the purchase price – unless you are intending to rent, in which case it is 20% down.

When it comes to purchasing a secondary property, whether for investment or rental or vacation, it can be a great opportunity! As your mortgage broker I can work with to find the best solution for your unique needs.

AIR BNB on Your Mind?

More and More Canadians are hopping on the short-term rental train as Air bnb’s popularity has sky-rocketed over the last few years. It’s not a bad way to earn extra money, but don’t forget there are a few things to consider:

  • Check strata/city bylaws
  • Contact your insurance provider to get correct coverage
  • Talk to your mortgage broker to see if a short-term income property can affect your approval
  • Consider tax implications, and talk to an accountant.

The more services you provide as a host, the greater the chance that your rental operation will be considered a business.

Published by DLC Marketing Team

11 Mar

Canada Reached Full-Employment in February

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Statistics Canada released the February Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more significant than expected 336,600 net new jobs, with the unemployment rate falling a full percentage point to 5.5%. This is the first time the unemployment rate fell below its pre-Covid level and reinforces the expectation for another Bank of Canada rate hike in April and as many as five more increases this year. Last month’s recovery more than offsets the losses that coincided with the Omicron lockdowns in January and points to the continued resilience of the Canadian economy.

The loonie jumped on the news, as did Canadian government bond yields.

Other indicators point to an increasingly tight labour market in February. Total hours worked surged 3.6% to a record high, while the employment rate rose 1.0 percentage points to 61.8%. Gains were most notable in the hard-hit accommodation and food services sector (+114,000; +12.6%), and information, culture and recreation (+73,000; +9.9%) industries. Employment increases were widespread across provinces and demographic groups.

Average wages increased 3.1% from February 2020, significantly faster than the 2.4% rate recorded in January. That could signal that inflationary pressures, already intense, continue to build.

     

Bottom Line 

This Labour Force Survey was conducted in mid-February, before the start of the Ukrainian War. since then, many commodity prices have surged, especially oil, gasoline, aluminum, wheat and fertilizer. This will accelerate CPI inflation worldwide, which dampens consumer and business confidence and reduces family purchasing power. The war has also contributed to continuing supply disruptions, all of which point to increased uncertainty and potentially slower growth.

The Bank of Canada is likely to hike interest rates when it meets again on April 13 by 25 basis points. Any more than that is imprudent given the risk of an economic slowdown. The outlook for the remainder of this year is more uncertain and likely to be volatile, depending on how long the war lasts. Right now, the likelihood for another five or six rate hikes this year and a few more next year. This, however, is subject to change.

Published by:

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

7 Mar

Residential Market Commentary – Rising rates: fixed or variable?

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Well, it happened. The Bank of Canada pulled the trigger on an interest rate increase, the first since October 2018. The trendsetting “overnight” rate doubled from .25% to .50% and the Bank has made it clear more increases are coming.

The upward move and the Bank’s messaging have rekindled the perennial mortgage debate: fixed or variable. The answer remains the perennial: it depends.

It depends on the borrower’s end goals, finances and their desire for stability. That last point, stability, is what leads most Canadian home buyers to opt for a 5-year, fixed-rate mortgage. But in purely financial terms – and saving money – variable-rate mortgages tend to be cheaper and they do not have to be volatile.

In a rising rate environment, many borrowers worry about the cost of their debt going up. But right now, variable-rates are notably lower than fixed-rates and it will take several Bank of Canada increases to close the gap. In the meantime, that amounts to savings for the borrower.

Those savings – often hundreds of dollars a month – could be applied against principal. As rates rise the amount can be adjusted, thereby keeping total monthly payments the same and evening-out any volatility.

It should be remembered that fixed-rates are rising as well. They are tied to Government of Canada 5-year bond yields. Those yields have been increasing, and at least some of that is tied to increases in U.S. government bond yields. Canadian bonds tend to move in sync with American bonds, but those changes do not necessarily reflect the Canadian economy. In other words, the changes are not completely within our control.

 

Published by First National Financial LP

2 Mar

Bank of Canada Starts Hiking Rates, Signalling More To Come

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate target by a quarter percentage point in a widely expected move and signaled that more hikes would be coming. This is the first rate hike since 2018. In a cautious stance, the Bank announced it was continuing the reinvestment phase, keeping its overall Government of Canada bonds holdings on its balance sheet roughly stable.

The Bank’s press release highlighted the major new source of uncertainty provided by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia and suggested that it is a new source of substantial inflation pressure. Prices for oil, metals, wheat and other grains have skyrocketed recently. Moreover, this geopolitical distention negatively impacts confidence worldwide and adds new supply disruptions that dampen growth. “Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid, and we are following events closely.”

The Bank commented that economies have emerged from the impact of the Omicron variant more quickly than expected. Demand is robust, particularly in the US.

“Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, Canada’s labour market recovery suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.”

Canadian CPI inflation has risen to 5.1%, as expected in January, well below the 7.5% level posted in the US.” Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation increases the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

The final paragraph of the Bank’s press release speaks with great clarity: “The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement the policy interest rate increases. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made a clear statement regarding the outlook for a normalization of interest rates. We expect a series of rate hikes over the next year. Expect another 25 basis point increase following the next meeting on April 13. The increased uncertainty and volatility arising from the war in Ukraine is front of mind worldwide. Still, it will not deter central banks from tightening monetary policy to forestall an embedded rise in inflation expectations.

The Bank of Canada has postponed Quantitative Tightening, for now, a prudent move in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

Published by;

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

28 Feb

Residential Market Commentary – The war and interest rates

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

This week’s interest rate announcement by the Bank of Canada was almost universally expected to bring an increase; probably 0.25% but possibly as much as 0.50%.

Then Russia invaded Ukraine.

Markets were thrown into a tizzy.  They plunged.  But the frenzy was short lived.  By the end of the day markets were back in the black.

Canada’s economic exposure to Russia and Ukraine is relatively small.  Canada imported $1.2 billion from Russia in 2020; Russia imported roughly the same from Canada – less than a week’s worth of commercial traffic across the Ambassador Bridge.

The key factor in the conflict, for Canada, will likely be the price of oil, which has climbed past $100 a barrel.  Rising oil prices and higher fuel costs have been a principal driver of inflation here, and inflation is the main concern of the Bank of Canada.  It is currently running at 5.1%, a 30 year high, and the central bank is under growing pressure to bring it under control.

Oil is also an important part of Canada’s resource economy.  Higher prices will likely lead to more production.  Any embargo of Russian oil will create demand for Canadian product.  That, in turn, would put more load onto Canada’s economic recovery, which is strong but hampered by pandemic labour shortages and supply-chain problems which, again, are adding to inflation pressures.

None the less, war creates uncertainty, and uncertainty triggers caution among central bankers.  A recent Reuters poll of 25 economists suggests the Bank of Canada will go ahead with a quarter-point rate hike this week.

Published by First National Financial LP

16 Feb

Power Up Your Finances

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Let’s face it, mere mention of the word “money” can make people shift in discomfort. In an era in which the veils are being lifted off many societal taboos, a shroud of shame hangs stubbornly over money talk – we’re taught to fear it, we’re taught it’s too complicated, and those are all messages meant to dis-empower.

It’s time to push past the taboo, and normalize talking about money. Disrupt it by talking about it – openly and frankly – with your partner, your friends, your family, and your colleagues. Speaking of partners, it’s important both parties are open with one another about their fears, feelings, and goals in regards to money. This is particularly important in opposite-gender households, where research shows that the male partner takes the financial lead in most homes.

stnce Senior Program Specialist, Sarah Zandbergen has this to say about the hesitation to discuss finances with partners: “It can be difficult to bring up, no question, but if you’re sharing your life with someone, finances are bound to come up. A staggering statistic we came across in our research is that 90% of women will be the sole financial decision-maker in their family at some point in their lives. Knowing this, there is absolutely no excuse to defer ownership to someone else.”

Smash the stigma, and get radically transparent about your salary, your financial situation, your debts, your windfalls, and your savings goals.

And, hey, we get it – there’s a sense of comfort, albeit a false one, that comes with avoiding fiscal responsibility, because it temporarily absolves us of having to do anything, but remaining on the sidelines gives money a leg up on you. So if you want to be truly in control, increasing your knowledge about money, and how to save it, is a critical part of the confidence-building process.

Published by DLC Marketing Team

7 Feb

No Wonder The Bank of Canada Didn’t Hike Interest Rates Last Month

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Statistics Canada released the January Labor Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more extensive than expected decline in jobs last month. The Omicron shutdowns and restrictions took a much larger toll in Canada than expected, as employment fell 200,100 in January and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%.

Ontario and Quebec drove January employment declines, and accommodation and food services was the hardest-hit industry. In January, youth and core-aged women, who are more likely than other demographic groups to work in industries affected by the public health measures, saw the most significant impacts. Goods-producing sectors recorded a gain, led by construction.

We did not expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates in January because of the risk that Omicron restrictions would batter the economy at least temporarily. If we see a reversal in these declines in February, rate hikes could well commence. The Bank of Canada’s next policy-decision date is March 2. But we won’t see the Labour Force Survey for February until March 11. This could postpone lift-off by the BoC until the next meeting on April 13, when we will have both the February and March employment reports. This would put the first rate hike in April, exactly when the Bank’s forward guidance initially told us the hikes would begin. 

The timing of lift-off is subject to the incoming data. It is troubling that the US employment report, also released today for January, was surprisingly strong, in contrast. To be sure, the US did not impose Canadian-style Omicron restrictions last month, but the Omicron wave did depress US economic activity. It was expected to translate into weak hiring. It didn’t. 467,000 jobs were created in the US, and massive upward revisions suggest a fundamentally very strong US economy. With US companies desperate to hire and the most significant issue being the lack of qualified staff, wages are rising more sharply south of the border.

Canadian employment remains just over 30,000 above pre-pandemic levels, and the country has a strong track record of bouncing back after prior waves of the virus. Yet, today’s jobs numbers suggest a tough start for the Canadian economy in the first quarter. Hours worked — which is closely correlated to output — fell 2.2% in January, and the number of employees who worked less than half their usual hours jumped by 620,000. January also saw the first drop in full-time employment — down 82,700 — since June.

Average hourly wages grew 2.4% (+$0.72) on a year-over-year basis in January, down from 2.7% in November and December 2021 (not seasonally adjusted). The January 2022 year-over-year change was similar to the average annual wage growth of 2.5% observed in the five years from 2015 to 2019.

The concentration of January 2022 employment losses in lower-wage industries did not significantly impact year-over-year wage change, partly because employment in these industries experienced similar losses in January 2021 as a result of the third wave of COVID-19.

Bottom Line 

There remains uncertainty regarding when (not if) the Bank of Canada will begin to re normalize interest rates. Canadian swaps trading suggests markets are still expecting a hike on March 2, with five more hikes over the next year. Potential home buyers are certainly anxious to get in under the wire.

Published by Dr. Sherry Cooper

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centers.

30 Jan

BCREA Explores Possible Scenarios of Rising Interest Rate

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

BRITISH COLUMBIA – The number of home sales in British Columbia is expected to fall and home price growth will moderate because of rising interest rates according to a new report from the British Columbia Real Estate Association(BCREA) examining the potential impacts of the Bank of Canada‘s rate tightening widely expected this year.

BCREA’s Market Intelligence report, Too Tight? The Impact of Bank of Canada Tightening on BC Housing Markets, was written by the association’s Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson and explores both the historical impacts of the Bank raising its policy rate and a number of scenarios likely to play out in BC’s housing market as a result.

“In the past, Bank of Canada tightening has usually led to falling home sales and flattening home prices, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the same happening in the upcoming round of tightening” says Ogmundson. “Based on previous trends and our model simulations for what might be to come with respect to rates, we have outlined a number of likely scenarios in this report.”

The Bank of Canada has signaled that in response to elevated Canadian inflation, it will begin raising its policy rate or “tightening” monetary policy this year. The impact of this type of action on housing markets is generally predictable, however, with BC’s housing markets currently under supplied with record-low numbers of active listings, the impact on prices may not be as significant.

“With markets so out of balance, we expect home price growth to slow but to what extent depends on the final rate destination for the Bank of Canada and for Canadian mortgage rates,” adds Ogmundson. “Our model simulations show only a minor impact on home prices in the first two years following the Bank raising its overnight rate.”

British Columbia set a new record for home sales last year with 124,854 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2021, a 32.8 per cent increase from the 94,001 units sold in 2020. For more economic analysis from the British Columbia Real Estate Association visit bcrea.bc.ca/economics.

Published by Business Examiner

 

26 Jan

Bank of Canada holds benchmark interest rate steady

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

This morning in its first scheduled policy decision of 2022, the Bank of Canada left its target overnight benchmark rate unchanged at what it describes as its “lower bound” of 0.25%. As a result, the Bank Rate stays at 0.5% and the knock-on effect is that borrowing costs for Canadians will remain low for the time being.

The Bank also updated its observations on the state of the economy, both in Canada and globally, leaving a strong impression that rates will rise this year.

More specifically, the Bank said that its Governing Council has decided to end its extraordinary commitment to hold its policy rate at the effective lower bound and that looking ahead, it expects “… interest rates will need to increase, with the timing and pace of those increases guided by the Bank’s commitment to achieving” its 2% inflation target.

These are the other highlights of today’s BoC announcement.

Canadian economy

  • The economy entered 2022 with considerable momentum, and a broad set of measures are now indicating that economic slack is absorbed
  • With strong employment growth, the labour market has tightened significantly with elevated job vacancies, strong hiring intentions, and a pick up in wage gains
  • Elevated housing market activity continues to put upward pressure on house prices
  • Omicron is “weighing on activity in the first quarter” and while its economic impact will depend on how quickly this wave passes, the impact is expected to be less severe than previous waves
  • Economic growth is then expected to bounce back and remain robust over the Bank’s “projection horizon,” led by consumer spending on services, and supported by strength in exports and business investment
  • After GDP growth of 4.5% in 2021, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by 4% in 2022 and about 3.5% in 2023

Canadian inflation

  • CPI inflation remains “well above” the Bank’s target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since October
  • Persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep CPI inflation close to 5% in the first half of 2022
  • As supply shortages diminish, inflation is expected to decline “reasonably quickly” to about 3% by the end of 2022 and then “gradually ease” towards the Bank’s target over the projection period
  • Near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target
  • The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to ensure that higher near-term inflation expectations do not become embedded in ongoing inflation

Global economy

  • The recovery is strong but uneven with the US economy “growing robustly” while growth in some other regions appears more moderate, especially in China due to current weakness in its property sector
  • Strong global demand for goods combined with supply bottlenecks that hinder production and transportation are pushing up inflation in most regions
  • Oil prices have rebounded to well above pre-pandemic levels following a decline at the onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19
  • Financial conditions remain broadly accommodative but have tightened with growing expectations that monetary policy will normalize sooner than was anticipated, and with rising geopolitical tensions
  • Overall, the Bank projects global GDP growth to moderate from 6.75% in 2021 to about 3.5% in 2022 and 2023

January Monetary Policy Report

The key messages found in the BoC’s Monetary Policy Report published today were consistent with the highlights noted above:

  • A wide range of measures and indicators suggest that economic slack is now absorbed and estimates of the output gap are consistent with this evidence
  • Public health measures and widespread worker absences related to the Omicron variant are slowing economic activity in the first quarter of 2022, but the economic impact is expected to be less severe than previous waves
  • The impacts from global and domestic supply disruptions are currently exerting upward pressure on prices
  • Inflationary pressures from strong demand, supply shortages and high energy prices should subside during the year
  • Over the medium term, increased productivity is expected to boost supply growth, and demand growth is projected to moderate with inflation expected to decline gradually through 2023 and 2024 to close to 2%
  • The Bank views the risks around this inflation outlook as roughly balanced, however, with inflation above the top of the Bank’s inflation-control range and expected to stay there for some time, the upside risks are of greater concern

Looking ahead

The Bank intends to keep its holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant “at least until” it begins to raise its policy interest rate.  At that time, the BoC’s Governing Council will consider exiting what it calls its “reinvestment phase” and reducing the size of its balance sheet. It will do so by allowing the roll-off of maturing Government of Canada bonds.

While the Bank acknowledges that COVID-19 continues to affect economic activity unevenly across sectors, the Governing Council believes that overall slack in the economy is now absorbed, “thus satisfying the condition outlined in the Bank’s forward guidance on its policy interest rate” and setting the stage for increases in 2022.

Published by First National Financial LP