14 Aug

Residential Market Commentary – Housing concerns moderate at BoC

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

A consistent concern as the Bank of Canada embarks on its interest rate cutting cycle has been what will happen to home prices.  There have been persistent fears that prices will spike as rates fall, effectively stalling efforts to bring down inflation.  The Bank of Canada, however, is not overly worried about it, according to the governing council’s latest Summary of Deliberations.

The central bankers are paying close attention to the housing market but their worries about pent-up demand driving prices higher as interest rates drop have eased.  They do acknowledge that declining mortgage rates and higher-than-expected population growth “could add to demand.”  But there is also a feeling that “housing affordability challenges could have played a greater-than-expected role in dampening demand” and that delays in building homes could limit the growth of supply.

So far, housing market reaction to the rate cuts that have been made is mild.  There have been some upticks in sales and in new listings.  The Bank of Canada’s trend-setting policy rate is currently 4.50%.

A number of market watchers have commented that the Bank of Canada seems satisfied with the progress that is being made to bring inflation back to its 2.0% target.  The Consumer Price Index puts headline inflation at 2.7%.  The analysts suggest the Bank is now shifting its focus away from inflation and toward maintaining economic growth and avoiding a recession.

The Bank’s next interest rate announcement is set for September 4th.

Published by First National Financial LP

31 Jul

First Time Home Owners to eligible for 30-year amortization

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Effective August 1st, 2024, the Department of Finance will now allow homeowners purchasing a newly built property and who meet First Time Home Buyer (FTHB) criteria, the option of a 30 year amortization for insured mortgages.

At least one borrower to be a FTHB, defined as below:

      • The borrower has never purchased a home before; or
      • In the last 4 years, the borrower has not occupied a home as a principal place of residence that either they themselves or their current spouse or common-law partner owned; or
      • The borrower recently experienced the breakdown of a marriage or common-law partnership.
  • At least one borrower must occupy the property
  • Eligible Properties:
    • Available for 1 – 4 Units
    • Owner Occupied or Partially Owner Occupied
    • Newly built homes and condos ONLY
  • Insurer Premium – surcharge of 0.20% applicable to loans where amortization is >25 years
  • Eligible loan type – Purchase, Purchase Plus Improvement, Port/Replacement
  • Ineligible loan type – Small Rental and Secondary Home Programs

Please reach out to me with any questions.

8 Jul

Residential Market Commentary – Employment and rate cuts

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Canada’s latest employment numbers are widely seen as supporting more interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

The economy shed 1,400 jobs in June and the unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, up 0.2% from May.  The loss of about 3,000 full-time jobs was somewhat offset by the addition of about 2,000 part-time positions.  Economists are saying the numbers give the BoC more latitude to move ahead with interest rate reductions.

The prospect of lower rates is, of course, appealing to anyone looking to get or renew a mortgage, but reduced interest costs are not likely to improve affordability.

Economist Marc Desormeaux recently ran simulations looking at the impact of some commonly proposed solutions to Canada’s housing affordability problem, including lower interest rates.  He found that the decline in interest rates is expected to be moderate in the short term, which will make mortgage payment relief minimal and likely to be offset by increasing housing prices.  He also notes that income growth is expected to be modest making the likelihood of improved affordability only moderate, if at all.

Desormeaux also looked at extended amortizations, limiting immigration, a spike in new listings, and recession.  All of the scenarios were seen to be minimally effective, and only in the short term.

“Increasing housing supply is the only sustainable long-run solution”, says Desormeaux in his report.

Published by First National Financial LP

25 Jun

Residential Market Commentary – Sleepy and uneventful

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The spring home buying season never really blossomed this year.

May figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association suggest buyers and sellers have been taking a “wait and see” stance.

Sales in May dipped 0.6% from April and are down 5.9% from a year earlier. Prices dropped 4.0% year-over-year leaving the national average home price at $699,000.

CREA’s preferred measure, the National Composite MLS Home Price Index, came in 2.4% below May 2023.

The number of new listings was also flat with an increase of just 0.5%. However, inventories are at a five-year high.

CREA used the words “sleepy” and “uneventful” to describe the month and speculated that buyers and sellers were waiting for the Bank of Canada to implement interest rate cuts. That cut did come on June 5th and the realtors are hopeful it will stimulate renewed activity.

A recent survey of home buying intentions by the real estate website Wahi suggests that while high rates may be keeping buyers out of the market they are not driving sales. Just 11% of respondents who said they will be selling within the next five years are doing so because of financial strain.

The key reason people plan to put their homes on the market is size.

Thirty-seven percent said they want to downsize and 25% said they are looking for a bigger place. Of those looking for a smaller home nearly 70% are more than 54 years old. On the other side, 94% of those looking to upsize are between 18 and 54 years old.

Published by First National Financial LP

5 Jun

Bank of Canada Cuts Overnight Rate by 25 Basis Points

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

We are pleased to inform you that today the Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. This is the first interest rate cut since the tightening cycle began in March 2022.

Although there will likely be no significant changes to fixed mortgage rates in the short term, the CMBA-BC is strongly encouraged by this rate reduction, viewing it as a positive step towards alleviating the financial pressure on mortgage holders, borrowers, and homebuyers across British Columbia. Variable Rate Mortgages and Home Equity Lines of Credit will benefit from this rate drop as the prime lending rate decreases, which is welcome news to those borrowers.

“A rate cut is crucial to provide the first steps of relief to mortgage holders and borrowers across the province,” said Rebecca Casey, President of the CMBA-BC. “We are pleased that the Bank of Canada has begun to ease the financial burden on homeowners and homebuyers.”

CMBA-BC advocates for action to bring relief to mortgage holders and homebuyers in British Columbia, including in the form of lower interest rates.

The Canadian economy has shown meaningful signs of slowing, with the first-quarter growth rate of 1.7 per cent falling short of the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.8 per cent and economists’ estimates of 2.2 per cent, according to Statistics Canada. Inflation has also seen a significant decline. The annual CPI inflation rate peaked at 8.1 per cent in June 2022 but has since fallen to 2.7 per cent in April, comfortably within the Bank’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent.

Due to elevated interest rates, on a year-over-year basis, the cost of shelter in British Columbia was up again in April according to BC Stats, with the cost of homeownership up 7.2 per cent and the cost of renting increasing 7.1 per cent. Many British Columbians are already at a tipping point.

CMBA-BC will continue to advocate for policies that support mortgage holders and facilitate a stable, prosperous housing market in British Columbia.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 24, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

 

Published by the CMBA -Canadian Mortgage Brokers Association

3 Jun

Residential Mortgage Commentary – Interest rate decision time

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The last significant economic report before this week’s Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is in.  It effectively knocks down the last barrier to a, much hoped for, rate cut.

Gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced by the economy – for the 1st quarter of this year grew by 1.7%.  That is significantly lower than the central bank’s forecast of 2.8% growth, and analyst projections for a 2.2% increase.

GDP growth for the 4th quarter of last year saw a major downgrade to 0.1% from 1.0%.

Statistics Canada’s GDP report builds on several months of data showing inflation has fallen inside the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1.0% to 3.0% for both the Consumer Price Index (headline inflation) and core inflation, which is the Bank’s preferred measure.

It is widely accepted that the central bank’s high interest rate policy has done what was needed to slow the economy, allowing supply to catch up with demand.

There are reasons the Bank could hold off on a rate cut until July:

  • There has been no clear message from the Bank that a cut is actually coming.
  • The Bank is still wary about mistakes it made in implementing rate hikes, that saw it lose control of inflation 2-and-a-half years ago.
  • A fear that housing prices will spike as rates drop could see the Bank delay cuts until after the spring buying season.
  • Currency concerns will likely keep the Bank from cutting more aggressively than the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Published by First National Financial LP

29 May

Residential Mortgage Commentary – More good inflation news

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The latest Statistics Canada inflation numbers have brought some more good news for consumers and anyone looking for interest rate relief.

The annualized rate of inflation in April dipped again, falling to a three-year low of 2.7%, down from 2.9% in March.

Two key components in the inflation calculation saw slowdowns last month: shelter costs, and food.  Shelter costs – which include mortgage costs and rents – increased by 6.4%, a 1 basis-point decline from March.  Grocery price inflation eased to 1.4%, a drop of 5 basis-points from March.  Gasoline prices, however, jumped 6.1%, which held the overall inflation rate somewhat higher.

Encouragingly, so-called, core inflation – which strips out prices for volatile items like food and fuel – also continued to decline.  This is the measure of inflation the Bank of Canada uses when making its interest rate decisions.  April’s average of the core inflation measures came in at 2.75%, down from 3.05% the month before.

Both headline and core inflation now fall inside the Bank’s 1.0% to 3.0% target range.

Many market watchers now believe the BoC will likely go ahead with an interest rate cut at its next meeting on June 5th.

There is one significant report that will arrive between now and then.  The latest Gross Domestic Product numbers will be released on May 31st.

Published by First National Financial LP

24 May

Residential Mortgage Commentary – Spring buying season sprouts slowly

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The spring home-buying season is off to a soft start.  The latest figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association show both sales and prices dipped, while inventories rose in April.

The numbers suggest a move toward better stability in Canada’s notoriously unhinged real estate market, and a move away from seller dominance.

April sales slipped 1.7% compared to March, but sales are up 10% compared to April 2023.  The national average price of a home remained flat month-over-month, but is down 1.8% compared to a year earlier, at about $703,500.

This comes as the number of new listings rose 2.8% m/m.  CREA notes that, when the rise in new listings is combined with slower sales it amounts to a 6.5% increase in the number of properties on the market.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 53.4%. The long-term average is 55%.  A ratio between 45% and 65% is generally considered balanced.

Affordability in Canada’s real estate market remains a key concern.  Many market watchers believe anxious buyers are thinking about the longer term, and waiting for interest rates to start falling before making their purchase.

In the meantime, those who can afford to get into the market have a larger range of home choices and renewed opportunities to negotiate terms.

Published by First National Financial LP

6 May

Residential Mortgage Commentary – BoC looks to interest rate cuts

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Anyone who is eager for the Bank of Canada to start lowering interest rates will probably be happy with what Governor Tiff Macklem has been saying.  But it comes with a caveat.

Appearing in front of the Commons Finance Committee, last week, Macklem told MPs the central bank is getting closer to cutting rates as inflation is showing signs of going down and staying down.

“The message to Canadians is, we are getting closer. We are seeing what we need to see and we just need to be confident that it will be sustained,” Macklem said.

The Bank focuses on “core inflation”, which strips out items like food and fuel which can be subject to volatile price swings.  That measure is now inside the Bank’s 1.0% – 3.0% target range.  Headline inflation is also inside the target range at 2.9%.

The housing market tends to get a lot of attention during interest rate discussions and Macklem concedes that the Bank’s policy has been “restraining” demand for housing.  He expects demand will grow this year, which will likely bring price increases along with more affordability concerns.

Macklem cautions that rates are unlikely to return to the record low (and nearly zero) levels that have been in place since the global recession from 2009 to 2021 and through the COVID pandemic.  He also warned that, when the Bank does start reducing rates, “it’s likely to be a pretty gradual path.”

“Canadians should not be expecting a rapid decline in interest rates,” he said.

Published by First National Financial LP

12 Apr

Ottawa to allow 30-year amortization for first-time buyers’ mortgages on new homes

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Some advocates are praising Ottawa’s move to lengthen the amortization period on insured mortgages for certain homebuyers, but say expanding the policy to all Canadians would help make home ownership more affordable.

Speaking in Toronto on Thursday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced the federal government will allow 30-year amortization periods on insured mortgages for first-time home buyers purchasing newly built homes.

The change will take effect Aug. 1.

Under the current rules, if a down payment is less than 20% of the home price, the longest allowable amortization — the length of time a homeowner has to repay their mortgage — is 25 years.

“Faced with a shortage of housing options and increasingly high rent and home prices, younger Canadians understandably feel like the deck is stacked against them,” Freeland said in a news release.

“By extending amortization, monthly mortgage payments will be more affordable for young Canadians who want that first home of their own.”

Mortgage Professionals Canada CEO Lauren van den Berg called it a “step in the right direction” and said extending the amortization period “will help level the playing field for first-time home buyers.”

“We know that this is going to allow greater opportunities for home ownership and will ultimately contribute to economic revival and economic recovery,” she said in an interview.

“But more still needs to be done for all Canadians to have that dream of home ownership within sight.”

Van den Berg said the government should expand the option to all Canadians purchasing a home, regardless of whether it is a new build or a pre-existing home.

“There are a lot of areas, particularly in the Greater Vancouver area and in the Greater Toronto Area, where you have no choice but to build up, so the possibility for new builds are not the same across the country.”

Ratesdotca mortgage and real estate specialist Victor Tran also raised concerns about how effective the change would be based on the eligibility criteria.

“While it’s currently possible to get an insured mortgage with a new build, it’s rare,” he said in a statement.

Tran also pointed out many properties in Vancouver and Toronto are priced at more than $1 million, which typically means buyers have to take uninsured mortgages.

But Canadian Home Builders’ Association CEO Kevin Lee said the announcement would be a “game changer.” The group has also been in favour of longer amortization periods, saying five more years would help with affordability and spur more construction.

“This measure will also go a long way to enable our sector to respond to the government’s goal of getting 5.8 million new homes built over the next decade,” he said in a statement.

“This measure is needed now to help turn the market around, and will be needed for many years to come if we are to work towards doubling housing starts.”

He said the rental market should see some relief too, as the move could enable some Canadians to stop renting and become homeowners.

As part of the announcement, Freeland also said the government will raise the amount first-time homebuyers can withdraw from their RRSPs — to $60,000 from $35,000 — to buy a home. That will take effect April 16, the day the federal budget is set to be released.

The government said the change reflects the reality that the size of a down payment and the amount of time needed to save up for one are much larger than they used to be.

People who have made or will make withdrawals between Jan. 1, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2025, are also getting more time to begin repayment — up to five years in total rather than two.

Ottawa said those changes are meant to work in tandem with the First Home Savings Account, which it launched last year. The rules governing that program allow prospective home buyers to start saving for up to 15 years once they open an account, with an annual $8,000 deposit cap and a lifetime contribution limit of $40,000.

Freeland said more than 750,000 Canadians have opened an FHSA to date. While the program came online April 1 of last year, most Canadian financial institutions only began offering the account as of last summer or fall.

Ottawa also announced changes to the Canadian Mortgage Charter that will include an expectation that financial institutions offer permanent amortization relief to protect existing homeowners who meet certain eligibility criteria.

That would allow eligible homeowners to reduce their monthly mortgage payment to a number they can afford for as long as needed.

Published by Canadian Mortgage Trends