The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points today to 3.75% and signalled that the policy rate would rise further. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds, which puts additional upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

Most market analysts had expected a 75 bps hike in response to the disappointing inflation data for September. Headline inflation has slowed from 8.1% to 6.9% over the past three months, primarily due to the fall in gasoline prices. However, the Bank said that “price pressures remain broadly based, with two-thirds of CPI components increasing more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.”

In his press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said that the Bank chose to reduce today’s rate hike from 75 bps last month (and 100 bps in July) to today’s 50 bps because “there is evidence that the economy is slowing.” When asked if this is a pivot from very big rate increases, Macklem said that further rate increases are coming, but how large they will be is data-dependent. Global factors will also influence future Bank of Canada actions.

“The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate. CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023 and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.”

The press release concluded with the following statement: “Given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Governing Council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate. We are resolute in our commitment to restore price stability for Canadians and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.”

Reading the tea leaves here, the fact that the Bank of Canada referred to ‘increases’ in interest rates in the plural suggests it will not be just one more hike and done.

Monetary Policy Report (MPR)

The Bank of Canada released its latest global and Canadian economies forecast in their October MPR. They have reduced their outlook across the board. Concerning the Canadian outlook, GDP growth in 2022 has been revised down by about ¼ of a percentage point to around 3¼%. It has been reduced by close to 1 percentage point in 2023 and almost ½ of a percentage point in 2024, to about 1% and 2%, respectively. These revisions leave the level of real GDP about 1½% lower by the end of 2024.

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation in 2022 and 2023 is anticipated to be lower than previously projected. The outlook for CPI inflation has been revised down by ¼ of a percentage point to just under 7% in 2022 and by ½ of a percentage point to about 4% in 2023. The outlook for inflation in 2024 is largely unchanged. The downward revisions are mainly due to lower gasoline prices and weaker demand. Easing global cost pressures, including lower-than-expected shipping costs, also contribute to reducing inflation in 2023. The weaker Canadian dollar partially offsets these cost pressures.

The Bank is expecting lower household spending growth. Consumer spending is expected to contract modestly in Q4 of this year and through the first half of next year. Higher interest rates weigh on household spending, with housing and big-ticket items most affected (Chart below). Decreasing house prices, financial wealth and consumer confidence also restrain household spending. Borrowing costs have risen sharply. The costs for those taking on a new mortgage are up markedly. Households renewing an existing mortgage are facing a larger increase than has been experienced during any tightening cycle over the past 30 years. For example, a homeowner who signed a five-year fixed-rate mortgage in October 2017 would now be faced with a mortgage rate of 1½ to 2 percentage points higher at renewal.

Housing activity is the most interest-sensitive component of household spending. It provides the economy’s most important transmission mechanism of monetary tightening (or easing). The rise in mortgage rates contributed to a sharp pullback in resales beginning in March. Resales have declined and are now below pre-pandemic levels (Chart below). Renovation activity has also weakened. The contraction in residential investment that began in the year’s second quarter is projected to continue through the first half of 2023, although to a lesser degree. House prices rose by just over 50% between February 2020 and February 2022 and have declined by just under 10%. They are projected by the Bank of Canada to continue to decline, particularly in those markets that saw larger increases during the pandemic.

Higher borrowing costs are affecting spending on big-ticket items. Spending on automobiles, furniture and appliances is the most sensitive to interest rates and is already showing signs of slowing. As higher interest rates work their way through the economy, disposable income growth and the demand for services will also slow. Past experience suggests that the demand for travel, hotels, restaurant meals and communications services will be impacted the most. Household spending strengthens beginning in the second half of 2023 and extends through 2024. Population growth and rising disposable incomes support demand as the impact of the tightening in financial conditions wanes. For example, new residential construction is boosted by strong immigration in markets that are already particularly tight.

Governor Macklem and his officials raised the prospect of a technical recession. “A couple of quarters with growth slightly below zero is just as likely as a couple of quarters with small positive growth” in the first half of next year, the bank said in the MPR.

Not all insurance products are created equal. One of the most common mistakes homeowners and potential homeowners make is that they hear the word “insurance” and just assume they have it! Well, you might have one kind of insurance, but you might be missing coverage elsewhere. It is important to understand all the different insurance products to ensure you have proper coverage.

To help you get a better understanding of the insurance, below are the four main insurance product options you will encounter and what they mean:

Default Insurance: This insurance is mandatory for homes where the buyer puts less than 20% down. In fact, default insurance is the reason that lenders accept lower down payments, such as 5% minimum, and actually helps these buyers access comparable interest rates typically offered with larger down payments.

Default insurance typically requires a premium, which is based on the loan-to-value ratio (mortgage loan amount divided by the purchase price). This premium can be paid in a single lump sum, or it can be added to your mortgage and included in your monthly payments.

In Canada, most homeowners know of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which is run by the federal government, and have used them in the past. But did you know? We also have two private companies, Sagen Financial and Canada Guaranty, who can also provide this insurance.

Home (Property & Fire) Insurance: Next, we have another mandatory insurance option, property and fire coverage (or, home insurance, as most people know it by). This is number two on our list as it MUST be in place before you close the mortgage! It is especially important to note that not all homes or properties are insurable, so you will want to review this sooner rather than later.

In addition to protecting against fire damage, home insurance can also cover the contents of your home (depending on your policy). This is important for anyone looking at purchasing condos or townhouses as the strata insurance typically protects the building itself and common areas, as well as your suit “as is”, but it will not account for your personal belongings or any upgrades you made. Be sure to cross-check your strata insurance policy and take out an individual one on your unit to cover the difference.

One final thing to consider is that you may not be covered in the event of a flood or earthquake. You may need to purchase additional coverage to be protected from a natural disaster, depending on your location.

Title Insurance: Another insurance policy that potential homeowners may encounter is known as “title insurance”. When it comes to lenders, this insurance is mandatory with every single lender in Canada requiring you to purchase title insurance on their behalf.

In addition, you have the option of purchasing this for yourself as a homeowner. The benefit of title insurance is that it can protect you from existing liens on the property’s title, but the most common benefit is protection against title fraud. Title fraud typically involves someone using stolen personal information, or forged documents to transfer your home’s title to him or herself – without your knowledge.

Similar to default insurance, title insurance is charged as a one-time fee or a premium with the cost based on the value of your property.

Mortgage Protection Plan: Lastly, we have our mortgage protection plan coverage. This is optional coverage, but one that any agent can tell you is extremely important. The purpose of the mortgage protection plan is to protect you, and your family, should something happen. It acts as a disability and a life insurance policy in regards to your mortgage.

Typically, when you get approval for a mortgage, it is based on family income. If one of the partners in the mortgage is no longer able to contribute due to disability or death, a mortgage protection plan gives you protection for your mortgage payments.

If you have any questions about mortgage insurance or what are the best options for you, please do not hesitate to reach out to a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage expert for professional advice! They can take a look at your existing plan and discuss your needs to help you find the perfect coverage to suit you and your family.

Published by DLC Marketing Team

Today, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight benchmark interest rate 75 basis point to 3.25% from 2.50% in July. This is the fifth time this year that the Bank has tightened money supply to combat inflation. While the latest increase was comparatively smaller than the move made in July (100 basis points), it is bigger than the changes made in March (+0.25%), April (+0.50%) and June (+0.50%).

Moreover, the Bank stated it is not finished hiking its policy interest rate just yet and noted that central banks around the world also “continue to tighten monetary policy.”

These are the highlights of today’s announcement.

Inflation at home and abroad 

•  In Canada, CPI inflation eased in July to 7.6% from 8.1% because of a drop in gasoline prices;  however, inflation (excluding gasoline) increased and data indicate a “further broadening of price pressures,” particularly in services
• The Bank’s core measures of inflation continued to move up, ranging from 5% to 5.5% in July
• Surveys suggest that short-term inflation expectations remain high domestically and “the longer this continues, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched”
• Global inflation remains high and measures of core inflation are moving up in most countries

Economic performance at home and abroad

• The Canadian economy continues to operate with excess demand and domestic labour markets remain “tight”
• Canada’s GDP grew by 3.3% in the second quarter – somewhat weaker than the Bank had projected – but indicators of domestic demand were very strong
• Canadian consumption grew by approximately 9.5% and domestic business investment was up by almost 12%
• Commodity prices have been volatile: oil, wheat and lumber prices have moderated while natural gas prices have risen
• Economic activity in the United States has moderated, although the U.S. labour market also remains tight
• China is facing ongoing challenges from COVID shutdowns

Canadian housing market

• With higher mortgage rates, the housing market is pulling back “as anticipated” following “unsustainable growth during the pandemic”

Looking ahead

The Bank expects the Canadian economy to “moderate” in the last half of 2022 as global demand weakens and tighter monetary policy begins to bring demand more in line with supply.

However, given the outlook for inflation, the Bank’s Governing Council continues to note that its policy interest rate will “need to rise further.”

To underscore its current thinking, the Bank wrote that it remains “resolute” in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve a 2% inflation target.

On the bright side, the Bank offered that as the effects of tighter monetary policy work through the economy, it “will be assessing how much higher interest rates need to go to return inflation to target.”

October 26, 2022 is the BoC’s next policy announcement date at which time it will also make its fourth Monetary Policy Report of the year available for review.

Published by First National Financial LP

If you lost your job tomorrow, would there be a list in your head right away of things you could do to hang on or would you just be at a complete loss?

Financial knowledge will allow you to better assess your options and create a plan without getting overwhelmed. However, even with the best laid plans and all the financial literacy in the world, it’s impossible to completely eliminate financial stress — so how do you cope?

1. Have a clear picture of your financial situation.
Do you know your average monthly spend? Do you know how much you owe, the interest rate on your debts, and how much you pay each month in interest charges? Have you ever tracked and categorized your expenses to identify areas (car? dining out? home improvement?) where you could cut back if required?

Avoiding these questions is understandable because the answers may lead to some hard lifestyle choices but turning a blind eye to your real situation will only lead to never-ending financial stress. You need to clarify your situation, collect and analyze your data, and then start creating a plan of attack.

2. Accept your mistakes.
Move on from any emotional reaction and learn to live with any poor financial decisions from your past. Regret and anger won’t make that beach vacation you took on your credit card disappear! That beach vacation is long gone, just focus on your plan to channel more money towards paying for it!

If you need to pass on a night out with the gang because you want to put that $75 towards your card, then just come out and tell them. More than 50% of Canadians live paycheque-to-paycheque, so you won’t be surprising anybody!

3. Set small, achievable financials goals to bolster confidence and measure progress.
If you have credit card debt, try adding $100 to your monthly minimum credit card payment. If you have no credit card debt, open a TFSA and contribute a $100 a month. A hundred bucks might seem like a modest amount, but it is a realistic goal that will get you started and will help a lot more than you think.

Did you know that a $100 monthly deposit into your TFSA ($1200 year) from age 18 to 65 with will grow to almost $400K based on historical stock market returns?

Adding $100 monthly to the minimum 3% payment on a $5K credit card debt will cut the time required to pay off the balance from 251 months down to 38 months and save you $4500 in interest charges!

4. Get inspired and stay motivated.
Follow a personal finance YouTuber or blogger that you really connect with, hang a goal chart or progress tracker on the wall, talk with a friend or relative who has the same issues and work together — there are lots of methods and resources available to help you, even with a limited budget.  It’s critical to maintain a positive attitude and don’t beat yourself up — there are plenty of others in the same boat!

The ultimate goal is to completely eliminate financial stress by building passive income, so you don’t have to go to work everyday to pay the bills. Achieving this goal will take time and there is bound to be some stress along the way. Learn to cope and stay focused on your goals.

The worst financial mistake you can make is believing that a Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) or Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) is something to look into when you are a little older and more able to set some money aside. The fact is, you don’t use these accounts for saving at all, you use them for investing. Your retirement fund could grow to seven figures, even if you only contribute a fraction of the allowable yearly maximums. They also come with huge tax-saving benefits.

A lot of people get discouraged by the sheer amount that you are allowed to contribute to these registered accounts and the mere pittance they may be able to come up with — don’t fall into that mindset!

If you make 60,000/year from your job, you could contribute over $10,000 to your RRSP and another $6000 to your TFSA every year. Considering you are only going to have about $45K in your jeans after taxes, finding a spare $16K would require more than 30% of your take-home pay!

The good news is that your yearly contribution limits can be carried over and as you grow older (and theoretically have more disposable income) you can catch up. The bad news is that playing catch up isn’t going to happen unless you are very disciplined with your spending. Sure, you may earn more, but you will spend more… kids, cars, vacations, even the cat is going to cost you $800/year!

That extra disposable income you were envisioning may not materialize until you are in your mid 50’s, if ever! You need to scrape together whatever investment savings you can now, even saving just 5% ($200/month) of a $60K salary would make a huge impact.

Putting off getting started is going to cost you way more than you ever imagined in lost investment returns. Ignore the pitiful interest rates you see on bank savings accounts, holding cash will actually cost you money at current interest and inflation rates. However, the average annual return on many stock indexes (S&P, TSX, DSJ) over the past 40 years is around 7%. If you do a little math, you are soon going to realize that even on a relatively small investment of $200 month, the difference between starting when you are 18 versus starting at age 28 is jaw dropping.

Investing $200/month from age 18 to 65 at 7% would give you $790,139. The same $200 at the same rate from age 28 to 65 would yield just $384,810. Sure, you would be contributing $24,000 more over that extra 10 years, but your nest egg at 65 would be double — more than enough to keep you poolside at a nice resort every winter while those late starters are stuck in the snow!

There are plenty of rules, regulations and strategies to consider and every angle of the TFSA vs RRSP debate has been extensively written about. While you do need to understand the basics of how they work, the simple goal for the vast majority of us should be to put something, anything, into one (or both) of these accounts on a regular basis and start investing — you can’t go wrong!

Published by DLC Marketing Team