10 May

The Rate Debate

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

One of the first questions that potential buyers want answered is: “What is your interest rate?”

It is easy to think that this is the most important question, but there is a lot more to your mortgage contract than just the rate. And so, the rate debate continues!

The rate debate is a hot topic in the mortgage world. Not just the rates itself, but the importance of the rate versus other factors in the mortgage – such as terms and penalties. As a borrower, it can be easy to get caught up in one thing but, if you’re not paying close attention, ignoring other factors could cost you in the long run.

Before we get into these other factors, let’s talk rate. While not the only factor, it does continue to be an important decision criteria with any mortgage product. The interest rate is the percentage of interest you are paying on the principal loan; lower interest rates means more money to the mortgage and who doesn’t want that?

Variable Vs. Fixed

There are two types of mortgage rates: variable-rate and fixed-rate. A fixed-rate is just that – a fixed amount of interest that you would pay for the term of the mortgage. A variable-rate, on the other hand, is based off of the current Prime Rate, and can fluctuate depending on the markets.

Fixed rates are typically tied to the world economy where the variable rate is linked to the Canadian economy. When the economy is stable, variable rates will remain low to stimulate buying.

Fixed-Rate Mortgage: First-time home buyers and experienced home buyers typically love the stability of a fixed rate when just entering the mortgage space. The pros of this type of mortgage are that your payments don’t change throughout the life of the term. However, should the Prime Rate drop, you won’t be able to take advantage of potential interest savings.

Variable-Rate Mortgage: As mentioned, variable-rate mortgages are based on the Prime Rate in Canada. This means that the amount of interest you pay on your mortgage could go up or down, depending on the Prime. When considering a variable-rate mortgage, some individuals will set standard payments (based on the same mortgage at a fixed-rate), this means that should Prime drop and interest rates lower, they are paying more to the principal as opposed to paying interest. If the rates go up, they simply pay more interest instead of direct to the principal loan. Other variable-rate mortgage holders will simply allow their payments to drop with Prime Rate decreases, or increase should the rate go up. Depending on your income and financial stability, this could be a great option to take advantage of market fluctuations.

Beyond Rates

When considering your mortgage, other considerations such as penalties can be important factors for deciding on a mortgage product. If you have two competing products, say 1.65% interest fixed-rate and a 1.95% interest variable-rate, it seems as though it is a pretty easy decision. But, what about the ability to make extra payments? And what are the penalties?

It is easy to think that nothing will change throughout your 5-year mortgage term, so you probably haven’t even considered the penalties. However, when looking at the fixed versus variable rate mortgage, penalties can be quite different. Where variable rates typically charge three-months interest, a fixed rate mortgage uses an Interest Rate Differential (IRD) calculation.

Given that nearly 70% of fixed mortgages are broken before the term ends, this is an important variable. Fixed-rate mortgages are typically okay when the penalty is your contract rate versus the Benchmark rate. However, when penalties are based on the Benchmark rate (sometimes called the Bank of Canada rate), it is typically much higher than your contract rate, resulting in greater penalties.

In some cases, penalties for breaking a fixed mortgage can sometimes be two or three times higher than that of a variable-rate. While the interest rate is lower, lower penalties are sometimes best should anything happen down the line.

Conventional vs. High-Ratio Mortgage

Another consideration beyond just the interest rate, is whether or not you will be obtaining a conventional or a high-ratio mortgage. Whenever possible, it is recommended to put 20 percent down payment on a new home. This results in a conventional mortgage. However, as not everyone is able to do this, many buyers will end up with a high-ratio mortgage product.

So, what does this mean?

High-ratio mortgages need to be insured by either Genworth Financial, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), or Canada Guaranty. This is due to the Bank Act, which will only allow financial institutions to lend up to 80 percent of the homes purchase price WITHOUT mortgage default insurance. Insurance on the mortgage is important to protect the lender should you default on your payments, leaving the insurer to deal with the borrower.

The difference between conventional and high-ratio mortgages is that high-ratio mortgages require insurance, which results in an insurance premium. This is added to and paid along with the mortgage, but is an important factor when considering your monthly payments. These premiums are based on the loan to value (LTV), which is the amount of the loan versus the value of your home.

All high-ratio mortgages are regulated to have mortgage insurance, but some homeowners with a conventional mortgage may choose to pay for mortgage insurance to get a better rate.

Smart Questions to Ask

To ensure you understand your mortgage contract, and how it could affect you now and in the future, we have compiled a few smart questions to ask before you sign.

  1. What is my interest rate? Can I qualify for a better one?
  2. Do you recommend fixed or variable-rate?
  3. What are the penalties for breaking my mortgage?
  4. Are there any pre-payment penalties?
  5. Will I require mortgage insurance? If so, what are the premiums?
  6. What will my monthly payment be?
  7. Is my mortgage portable?

These are just a few examples of good questions to ask. It is important to do your own research and be diligent with any contract you are signing. Contacting a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker today can help ensure you understand what you are agreeing to, and that you are getting the best mortgage product for you!

Published by DLC Marketing Team

4 May

Interest rates and a hot economy

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

With the Canadian economy showing strong signs of recovery the way is clear for another half-a-percentage point increase in the Bank of Canada rate.

Statistics Canada figures for February show that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by another 1.1%, with just about all sectors of the economy showing improvement.

Preliminary data for March indicate a further 0.5% increase.  First quarter GDP growth is expected to hit 5.6%, which is nearly double the official forecast.

This rapid rebound from the Omicron variant of COVID-19 now has the Bank of Canada warning that the economy is overheating and more interest rate increases will be needed to cool it down and slow the pace of inflation.  That has cemented expectations for, at least, a 50 basis point increase in the Bank’s Policy Rate at the next setting on June 1st.  There is also the possibility of a 75 basis point hike.

In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last week Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, warned that the central bank may have to push its Policy Rate beyond the neutral range.

“It’s possible that we may have to go above the neutral rate for a period of time to return inflation to target, but it’s a bit above 2% or 3%, it’s not 7% or 8%,” he said.

“It’s going to be delicate. “But we do need to raise interest rates to moderate that spending growth and get inflation back to target,” Macklem said.

Published by First National Financial

25 Apr

Process in the Paperwork

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Documents Required to Qualify for a Mortgage

Mortgages can sometimes feel like endless stacks of paperwork, but being prepared in advance can save you time and stress! Getting your mortgage pre-approved is part of this prep-process, and will make things easy in the long run.

In order to get pre-approved, the lender must have taken you on as a client and reviewed all your documents before you begin house-hunting. It is important to ensure you have your pre-approval certificate before moving ahead and your pre-approval agreement in writing. This should include the pre-approved mortgage amount, the mortgage term, interest rate, payment information and the expiry for the pre-approval. Typically, they are valid for up to 120 days.

To prepare for the mortgage pre-approval process, there are a few must have documents that you will need to organize and have available prior to submission.

  1. Letter of Employment: One of the key aspects for financing approval is employment stability. Lenders want to see a letter from your employer (on a company letterhead) that details when you started working at this company, how much you make per hour or your annual salary, your guaranteed hours per week, and any probation if you are new. This can be done by your direct manager or the company HR department – they will be used to this type of request.
    1. Previous Two Pay Stubs: In addition to the employment letter, you must also have your previous two pay stubs. These must indicate the company name, your name and all tax deductions.
  2. Supporting Documents for Additional Income: If you have any other income, such as child support, long-term disability, EI, part-time income, etc., the lender will want to see any and all supporting documentation.
    1. NOTE: If you are divorced or separated and paying child support, it is important to also bring your finalized separation or divorce agreement. In some cases, they may request a statutory declaration from your lawyer.
  3. Notice of Assessment from Canada Revenue Agency: Lenders will also want to see your tax assessment for the previous year. If you do not have a copy, you can request one from the CA by mail (4-6 weeks) or you can login to your online CRA account to access it.
    1. Your Previous Years T4: Along with your tax filing and assessment notice, lenders will also want to see your previous years T4 slip to confirm income.
  4. 3-Month (90 day) Bank Account History: Lastly, it is important for lenders to see 90 days history of bank statements for any funds that you are using towards the down payment. As saving up for a down payment takes time, there should be no issues providing these documents. If you received the money from the sale of a house or car, or as a gift from your family, you will need proof of that in the form of sales documents or a letter.

The above documents are required for any potential buyer who is a typical, full-time employee. But what if you only work part-time? Or maybe you are self-employed? Here is what you will need:

Part-Time Employee

You will still require all of the above documents (letter of employment, previous pay stubs, supporting documents for any additional income and 90 days of bank history).

However, the difference between a full-time employee and a part-time employee, is that if you only work part-time, you will need to supply THREE years worth of Notice of Assessments, versus just one. You will also need to have been working for at least two years in the same job to use part-time income.

If you have both a full-time and a part-time job, you can use that income too, assuming it has been at least two years.

Self-Employed

If you are self-employed, the requirements for documents to lenders is slightly different. You will need to provide them:

  1. 3-Month (90 day) Bank Account History: Lenders need to see 90 days history of bank statements for any funds that you are using towards the down payment.
  1. T1 Generals: Also known as the Income Tax and Benefit Return
  2. Statement of Business Activities: This is used to illustrate the business income versus expenses and should include financial statements for your business.
  3. Notice of Assessment from Canada Revenue Agency: Similarly to part-time income, if you are self-employed you will also need to provide the previous three years of assessments.
  4. If Incorporated: You will need to supply your incorporation license and articles of incorporation.

When it comes to mortgages, preparation is key. By having pre-approval in hand, it can prevent any delays or issues with subject-to-financing clauses in the mortgage agreement. While you can walk into a bank, fill in an application and get a rate for a potential mortgage, this is just a ‘rate hold’ meaning it is a quote on the rate so you can qualify for the same rate later. This is not a pre-approval and does not guarantee financing.

To save yourself the headache down the line, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker today to start the pre-approval process! Plus, our services are free to you. Why wait? Get fully pre-approved today to make closing the deal that much faster when you do find that perfect home.

Published by the DLC Marketing Team

14 Apr

Bank of Canada Hikes Rates by 50 BPs

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate by a full 50 basis points for the first time in 22 years. This was a widely telegraphed action that will be followed by the US Federal Reserve next month. While the BoC was the first G-7 central bank to take such aggressive action, the Bank of New Zealand also hiked rates today by half a percentage point. Considering the surge in inflation and the strength of the Canadian economy, another jumbo rate hike may well be in the cards.

The Bank now realizes that inflation is coming, not just from supply disruptions but also from excessive demand. “In Canada, Growth is strong, and the economy is moving into excess demand. Labour markets are tight, and wage growth is back to its pre-pandemic pace and rising. Businesses increasingly report they are having difficulty meeting demand, and are able to pass on higher input costs by increasing prices.”

The Bank now says that “Growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in January and is likely to pick up in the second quarter. Consumer spending is strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures. Exports and business investment will continue to recover, supported by strong foreign demand and high commodity prices. Housing market activity, which has been exceptionally high, is expected to moderate”.

The Governing Council has, once again, revised up its inflation forecast. CPI inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above the control range throughout this year. It is then expected to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 and return to the 2% target in 2024. There is an increasing risk that expectations of elevated inflation could become entrenched.

With the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet will no longer be replaced, and, as a result, the balance sheet size will decline over time. This will put further upward pressure on interest rates further out the yield curve.

 

Bottom Line

Traders are betting that the overnight rate will approach 3.0% one year from today. In today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank revised upward its estimate of the neutral overnight rate to a range of 2.0% to 3.0%–up 25 bps from their estimate one year ago. This is the Bank’s estimate of the overnight rate that is consistent with the noninflationary potential growth rate of the economy.

The rise in interest rates has already shown signs of slowing the Canadian housing market. The MPR states that “Resales are expected to soften somewhat in the second quarter as borrowing rates rise. Low levels of both builders’ inventories and existing homes for sale should support new construction and renovations in the near term”.

Bond yields have risen in anticipation of the Bank of Canada’s move taking the five-year fixed mortgage rate up to between 3.5% and 4%. This could be a pivotal time, as mortgage borrowers must qualify for loans at the maximum of 5.25% or 2 percentage points above the offered contract rate. We are now beyond the  2 ppts threshold, which reduces the buying power of many.

 

Published by Dr. Sherry Cooper – Dominion Lending Centres

8 Apr

Labour Market Tightens Further

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Statistics Canada released the March Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a 72,500 jobs gain from the whopping 337,000 surge in February. Employment increased in both the goods- and services-producing sectors. Gains were concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, its lowest monthly rate since the data series was released in 1976, compared to 5.5% in February.

This adds more fuel to the notion that the Bank of Canada is behind the curve and will likely raise the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points next week. Indeed, Canada’s 2-year government note yield spiked on the news to 2.46%, up 2.38% at yesterday’s close.

Swap markets are now predicting a 75% probability of a half-point hike next week and an overnight rate of 3% a year from now. The overnight rate was 1.75% in February 2020, just before the pandemic began. Since then, inflation has surged from just over 2% to 5.7% in February. The March inflation data will be released on April 20, and it is widely expected to rise further. Indeed, the gauge of global food prices inflation is currently at a record high, exacerbated by the disruptions associated with the Ukraine war.

Adding to inflationary pressure is the rise in Canadian wage rates coming from the excess demand for labour. Total hours worked rose 1.3% in March. Average hourly wages increased 3.4% on a year-over-year basis, up from 3.1% in February. Illustrating the imbalances between labour supply and demand, employment gains since September (+463,000; +2.4%) have outpaced growth in the size of the population aged 15 and older (+236,000; +0.8%) during the same period.

Bottom Line 

This Labour Force Survey was conducted in mid-March, after the February 24th start of the Ukrainian War. Since then, many commodity prices have surged, especially oil, gasoline, aluminum, wheat and fertilizer. This has boosted inflation worldwide, dampening consumer and business confidence and reducing family purchasing power. The Bank of Canada’s recent Business Outlook Survey shows that businesses expect inflation to continue for two years.

The newly released Bank of Canada Survey of Consumer Expectations shows record-high short-term inflation expectations. Despite more significant concerns about inflation today, longer-term expectations have remained stable and are below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and those survey respondents believe the current rise in inflation will not last.

This view is predicated on the Bank of Canada tightening monetary policy significantly. All messaging from the Bank confirms that it will provide this by raising the overnight rate to around 3% over the next year and by quantitative tightening, reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that housing markets have already responded to rising mortgage rates. Supply has increased, and multiple-bidding activity has weakened.

Published By:

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
4 Apr

How to protect yourself from real estate fraud and schemes

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

As online-based transactions become more prevalent, cybercriminals are finding new and creative ways to steal your money.

So, what can you do to make sure you don’t fall prey to these malicious attacks? Here are the most common types of real estate fraud schemes and some ways that you can safeguard yourself.

Wire fraud

One of the most common types of real estate fraud is wire fraud. Fraudsters send you an email or text that outlines instructions on where to wire your deposit funds to be held in trust.

These cybercriminals may even set up a fake website that looks similar to your lending company’s site. The phone number, URL and email addresses will typically look familiar. They might just be one letter or number off. It’s an easy thing to miss if you aren’t looking closely.

If you send the money this way, the scammers can withdraw your money from some offshore account and you are left a victim of fraud.

Loan fraud

You get an email telling you that you are pre-approved for a special mortgage loan with a super-low interest rate. Often, these “mortgage agencies” are fraudulent loan companies that offer a steep discount on loans if you pay an upfront fee.

Be wary of any service that asks for your banking information or other sensitive information. Do your research on the company before moving forward. Ask for a list of referrals you can contact.

Remember, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Title fraud

One of the most devastating real estate fraud schemes for property owners is title fraud.

Title fraud usually starts with identity theft. Scammers get a hold of your online passwords and sensitive information. Then, they use fake documents to pose as the property owner and transfer the property to his or her name. They typically take out a mortgage or line of credit against the property. The criminal then takes the cash and runs, leaving you stuck with the payments.

How to protect yourself from real estate fraud schemes

As alarming as these types of fraud are, there are many things you can do to protect yourself from becoming a victim to these schemes.

Protect your personal data

Use a unique password for each login account. It’s wise to keep your antivirus and security software installed and up to date. And avoid sensitive transactions such as online banking or shopping when you’re using public Wi-Fi.

When conducting online transactions that involve money or personal data, use password-protected emails.

Confirm validity

Before you send money or give out sensitive information to a third party, verify that you are dealing with the legitimate company or person.

Make sure you check the original documents from your lender and call the listed phone number to verify the payment instructions.

Get title insurance

If you’re buying property, make sure that you get title insurance. Title insurance is your best protection against title fraud. It also protects you from existing liens on the title, encroachment issues and errors in surveys and public records.

 

Published by DLC Marketing

30 Mar

Understanding Your Mortgage Rate.

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

When it comes to mortgages, one of the most important influencers is interest rate but do you know how this rate is determined? It might surprise you to find out that there are 10 major factors that affect the interest you will pay on your home loan!

Knowing these factors will not only prepare you for the mortgage process, but will also help you to better understand the mortgage rates available to you.

Credit Score

Not surprisingly, your credit score is one of the most influential factors when it comes to your interest rate. In fact, your credit score determines if you are able to qualify for financing at all – as well as how much. In order to qualify, a minimum credit score of 680 is required for at least one borrower. Having higher credit will further showcase that you are a reliable borrower and may lead to better rates.

Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio

This ratio refers to the value of the amount being borrowed as a percentage of the overall home value. The main factors that impact LTV ratios include the sales price, appraised value of the property and the amount of the down payment. Putting down more on a home, especially one with a lower purchase price, will result in a lower LTV and be more appealing to lenders. As an example, if you were to buy a home appraised at $500,000 and are able to make a down payment of $100,000 (20%), then you would be borrowing $400,000. For this transaction, the LTV is 80%.

Insured vs. Uninsured

Depending on how much you are able to save for a down payment, you will either have an insured or uninsured mortgage. Typically, if you put less than 20% down, you will require insurance on the property. Depending on the insurer, this can affect your borrowing power as well as the interest rates.

Fixed vs. Variable Rate

The type of rate you are looking for will also affect how much interest you will pay. While there are benefits to both fixed and variable mortgages, it is more important to understand how they affect interest rates.  Fixed rates are based on the bond market, which depends on the amount that global investors demand to be paid for long-term lending. Variable rates, on the other hand, are based on the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate. This ties variable rates directly to the economic state at-home, versus fixed which are influenced on a global scale.

Location

Location, location, location! This is not just true for where you want to LIVE, but it also can affect how much interest you will pay. Homes located in provinces with more competitive housing markets will typically see lower interest rates, simply due to supply and demand. On the other hand, with less movement and competition will most likely have higher rates.

Rate Hold

A rate hold is a guarantee offered by a lender to ‘hold’ the interest rate you were offered for up to 120 days (depending on the lender). The purpose of a rate hold is to protect you from any rate increases while you are house-hunting. It also gives you the opportunity to take advantage of any decreases to your benefit. This means that, if you were pre-approved for your mortgage and worked with a mortgage broker to obtain a ‘rate hold’, you may receive a different interest rate than someone just entering the market.

Refinancing

The act of refinancing your mortgage basically means that you are restructuring your current mortgage (typically when the term is up). Whether you are changing from fixed to variable, refinancing to consolidate debt, or just seeking access to built up equity, any change to your mortgage can affect the interest rate you are offered. In most cases, new buyers will be offered lower rates than refinancing, but refinancing clients will receive better rates than mortgage transfers. Regardless of why you are refinancing, it is always best to discuss your options with a mortgage broker to ensure you are making the best choice for your unique situation.

Home Type

Among other things, lenders assess the risk associated with your home type. Some properties are viewed as higher risk than others. If the subject property is considered higher risk, the lender may require higher rates.

Secondary Property (Income Property/Vacation Home)

Any secondary properties or those bought for the purpose of being an income property or vacation home, will be assessed as such. The lender may deem these as high risk investments, and you may be required to pay higher interest rates than you would on a principal residence. This is another area where a mortgage broker can help. Since they have access to a variety of lenders and various rates, they can help you find the best option.

Income Level

The final factor is income level. While this does not have a direct affect on the interest rate you are able to obtain, it does dictate your purchasing power as well as how much you are able to put down on a home.

It is important to understand that obtaining financing for a mortgage is a complex process that looks at many factors to ensure the lender is not putting themselves at risk of default. To ensure that you – the borrower – is getting the best mortgage product for your needs, don’t hesitate to reach out to a DLC Mortgage Broker today! Mortgage brokers are licensed professionals that live and breathe mortgages, and who have access to a variety of lenders to ensure you are getting the best rates. Mortgage brokers can also assess your unique situation and find the right mortgage for you. Their goal is to see you successfully find and afford the home of your dreams and set you up for future success!

Published By DLC Marketing Team

23 Mar

Investment Properties

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

So, you are looking to purchase a second property! Congratulations! This is a great opportunity for you to expand your financial portfolio and ensure stability for the future. However, before you launch into this purchase there are a few things you should know, depending on which type of second property you are looking to purchase.

Second Property with Intention to Rent

Buying a property for the purpose of renting it out to someone else comes with different qualifying criteria and mortgage product options than traditional home purchases. Before you look at purchasing a rental property, there are a few things to consider:

  1. The minimum down payment required is 20% of the purchase price, and the funds must come from your own savings; you cannot use a gift from someone else.
  2. Only a portion of the rental income can be used to qualify and determine how much you can afford to borrow. Some lenders will only allow you to use 50% of the income added to yours, while other lenders may allow up to 80% of the rental income and subtract your expenses.
  3. Interest rates usually have a premium when the mortgage is for a rental property versus a mortgage for a home someone intends on living in. The premium can be anywhere from 0.10% to 0.20% on a regular 5-year fixed rate.

Rental income from the property can be used to debt service the mortgage application, but do bear in mind that some lenders will have a minimum liquid net worth requirement outside of the property. Also, if you do eventually want to sell this property it will be subject to capital gains tax. Your accountant will be able to help you with that aspect if you do decide to sell in the future.

Vacation Property

While vacation properties are not always the perfect investment, they are popular options for people who want to get away from it all and build memories in! If you’re motivated to head down that road, buying a vacation property is essentially like purchasing a second home.

If you are considering buying a unit within a hotel as a vacation spot (known as “fractional ownership”), it is important to note that if there is any mention of using your vacation home to provide rental income it will be treated like an investment property.

Secondary Property

Most people are trained to stay out of debt and don’t tend to consider using the equity in their home to buy an investment property, but they haven’t realized the art of leveraging. If you’re using equity from your primary residence to buy a secondary property, keep in mind that the interest you’re using is tax deductible. Consider that you’re buying an appreciating asset, and if you put a real estate portfolio and a stock portfolio side-by-side, they don’t compare.

Who is a good candidate?

You might be surprised to learn that you don’t need to make six figures to get in the game. Essentially, you just have to be someone who wants to be a little smarter with their down payment. Before taking on a secondary property remember that the minimum down payment is 5% of the purchase price – unless you are intending to rent, in which case it is 20% down.

When it comes to purchasing a secondary property, whether for investment or rental or vacation, it can be a great opportunity! As your mortgage broker I can work with to find the best solution for your unique needs.

AIR BNB on Your Mind?

More and More Canadians are hopping on the short-term rental train as Air bnb’s popularity has sky-rocketed over the last few years. It’s not a bad way to earn extra money, but don’t forget there are a few things to consider:

  • Check strata/city bylaws
  • Contact your insurance provider to get correct coverage
  • Talk to your mortgage broker to see if a short-term income property can affect your approval
  • Consider tax implications, and talk to an accountant.

The more services you provide as a host, the greater the chance that your rental operation will be considered a business.

Published by DLC Marketing Team

11 Mar

Canada Reached Full-Employment in February

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Statistics Canada released the February Labour Force Survey this morning, reporting a much more significant than expected 336,600 net new jobs, with the unemployment rate falling a full percentage point to 5.5%. This is the first time the unemployment rate fell below its pre-Covid level and reinforces the expectation for another Bank of Canada rate hike in April and as many as five more increases this year. Last month’s recovery more than offsets the losses that coincided with the Omicron lockdowns in January and points to the continued resilience of the Canadian economy.

The loonie jumped on the news, as did Canadian government bond yields.

Other indicators point to an increasingly tight labour market in February. Total hours worked surged 3.6% to a record high, while the employment rate rose 1.0 percentage points to 61.8%. Gains were most notable in the hard-hit accommodation and food services sector (+114,000; +12.6%), and information, culture and recreation (+73,000; +9.9%) industries. Employment increases were widespread across provinces and demographic groups.

Average wages increased 3.1% from February 2020, significantly faster than the 2.4% rate recorded in January. That could signal that inflationary pressures, already intense, continue to build.

     

Bottom Line 

This Labour Force Survey was conducted in mid-February, before the start of the Ukrainian War. since then, many commodity prices have surged, especially oil, gasoline, aluminum, wheat and fertilizer. This will accelerate CPI inflation worldwide, which dampens consumer and business confidence and reduces family purchasing power. The war has also contributed to continuing supply disruptions, all of which point to increased uncertainty and potentially slower growth.

The Bank of Canada is likely to hike interest rates when it meets again on April 13 by 25 basis points. Any more than that is imprudent given the risk of an economic slowdown. The outlook for the remainder of this year is more uncertain and likely to be volatile, depending on how long the war lasts. Right now, the likelihood for another five or six rate hikes this year and a few more next year. This, however, is subject to change.

Published by:

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

7 Mar

Residential Market Commentary – Rising rates: fixed or variable?

General

Posted by: Frank Fik

Well, it happened. The Bank of Canada pulled the trigger on an interest rate increase, the first since October 2018. The trendsetting “overnight” rate doubled from .25% to .50% and the Bank has made it clear more increases are coming.

The upward move and the Bank’s messaging have rekindled the perennial mortgage debate: fixed or variable. The answer remains the perennial: it depends.

It depends on the borrower’s end goals, finances and their desire for stability. That last point, stability, is what leads most Canadian home buyers to opt for a 5-year, fixed-rate mortgage. But in purely financial terms – and saving money – variable-rate mortgages tend to be cheaper and they do not have to be volatile.

In a rising rate environment, many borrowers worry about the cost of their debt going up. But right now, variable-rates are notably lower than fixed-rates and it will take several Bank of Canada increases to close the gap. In the meantime, that amounts to savings for the borrower.

Those savings – often hundreds of dollars a month – could be applied against principal. As rates rise the amount can be adjusted, thereby keeping total monthly payments the same and evening-out any volatility.

It should be remembered that fixed-rates are rising as well. They are tied to Government of Canada 5-year bond yields. Those yields have been increasing, and at least some of that is tied to increases in U.S. government bond yields. Canadian bonds tend to move in sync with American bonds, but those changes do not necessarily reflect the Canadian economy. In other words, the changes are not completely within our control.

 

Published by First National Financial LP